NFL coaches can take drastically different approaches to the preseason. Under Mike Zimmer, the Minnesota Vikings were 20-8 in the exhibition games. Winning sometimes wasn’t enough to shield players from criticism, either. Following their win in the 2016 preseason opener against the Cincinnati Bengals, Zimmer called Minnesota’s running game and linebackers “soft.” He got defensive a few weeks later when reporters asked how long starters would play against the then-San Diego Chargers.
However, Kevin O’Connell has taken the opposite approach to the preseason. The Vikings have lost all six preseason matchups since O’Connell took over in 2022. He has played the starters sparingly, and former quarterback Kirk Cousins never took a snap in those six games. But this year, the Vikings have two new quarterbacks. Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy will split playing time as O’Connell prepares McCarthy to become Minnesota’s franchise quarterback, making this O’Connell’s most important preseason.
Unlike Cousins, Darnold is unfamiliar with Minnesota’s roster and is not an established NFL quarterback. Even though he’s likely to be the opening-day starter, he will probably have to play in the preseason. So, what will O’Connell be looking for while evaluating Darnold and McCarthy in these next three games?
“You know, it’s not always the result of a play when you’re wearing a red jersey that ultimately matters,” O’Connell said Tuesday. “Was your footwork right? Were your feet and eyes working together, eyes in the right spot? The rhythm and timing at which you made your decision. Then the throw location. Did you make guys work for it? Did you throw it away from a defender? Did you put, you know, the optimal amount of touch or ball placement?
“There [are] so many layers to it.”
O’Connell’s detailed response highlights that the coaching staff will not look solely at stat lines to determine how well or poorly the quarterbacks perform. Instead, the preseason is an extension of the evaluation process that started in the spring. McCarthy has shown he’s capable of making splash plays during camp. However, standing in the pocket and making the correct reads will be more important, even if it’s less exciting.
McCarthy must also demonstrate that he won’t revert to old habits with his mechanics. The team has been working with him on things as subtle as which foot he sets forward in shotgun. Minute details in his footwork influence his mechanics, which determine his timing. If he does those little things correctly, there is a better chance that they yield positive results.
However, McCarthy isn’t the only player who must avoid bad habits under the bright lights. Darnold is a former No. 3-overall pick who has been with three teams in the past four years. He’s physically talented and has connected on several 40-plus-yard bombs down the field in practice. But he can be turnover-prone and must learn a complicated offense. This is an important year for him, and the coaching staff believes they can unlock his potential with the strong infrastructure around him.
Suppose Darnold shows command of Minnesota’s offense and leads them on multiple scoring drives on Saturday. Would that be enough for the coaching staff to designate him as the starter and keep him on the sideline for the rest of the preseason?
That may contradict O’Connell’s statement that results aren’t the ultimate factor in a quarterback’s success. However, it would be a meaningful progression in the right direction for Darnold and the coaching staff. So, if box scores aren’t the ultimate measure of how the Vikings will evaluate preseason performances, are there any metrics we can use to quantify them?
In O’Connell’s first year as coach, the preseason backup quarterback competition was so poor that neither quarterback made the roster, leading the Vikings to trade for Nick Mullens.
Second-year quarterback Kellen Mond and long-time backup Sean Mannion failed to move the offense. They combined for a 75.1 passer rating and frequently moved the offense backward. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Mond was sacked five times on 18 pressures, a 27.8% rate. Mannion was sacked three times on nine pressures, a 33.3% rate. Each quarterback also added a fumble, and Mond tossed two interceptions.
Mullens backed up Cousins in 2022. In the 2023 preseason, Mullens showed more of what the Vikings want out of their quarterbacks. His 90.3 passer rating was respectable. More importantly, he didn’t turn the ball over and only took two sacks on 17 pressures, an 11.8% rate that kept the offense from moving in reverse.
Throughout the preseason last year, Mullens showed he knew where to go with the ball, even with pressure in his face. Compare that with fifth-round rookie Jaren Hall, who took nine sacks on 25 pressures, a 36% rate, and it’s evident why the Vikings trust Mullens to run the offense.
During the 2022 and 2023 seasons, Cousins took sacks at 17.1% and 15.7% rates when pressured. He was also consistent with his timing, releasing his throws within the rhythm of the offense. The pass rush typically will get to a quarterback in three seconds. In the past two seasons, Cousins got the ball out of his hands in 2.69 seconds. When he went down in 2023, Mullens was the only other Vikings quarterback to get the ball out in less than three seconds (2.92).
Throughout Michigan’s championship run last year, McCarthy got the ball out of his hands in 2.84 seconds. Over six seasons, Darnold has averaged 2.85 seconds. McCarthy only took sacks on 16.8% of pressures in 2023. Darnold took sacks at an 18.2% rate when pressured in his first six seasons.
If Darnold and McCarthy can operate the offense with the proper mechanics and these metrics, then O’Connell and his staff have succeeded this offseason. Who wins the job is less important than both players doing the job well. And both quarterbacks playing well is more important than having more points on the scoreboard than the other team. In August, anyway.
