T.J. Hockenson is expected to return to the Minnesota Vikings’ starting lineup for the first time since tearing his ACL during last year’s Christmas Eve game against the Detroit Lions. Hockenson led the team with 95 receptions last year despite missing the final two games due to his knee injury.
He rejoins Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Aaron Jones, the best running back Hockenson will have played with during his time in Minnesota. He will also have Sam Darnold throwing him passes instead of Kirk Cousins. So how can we expect Hockenson to impact an offense that ranks 17th in yards through seven games?
Hockenson has been one of the league’s top-performing tight ends since the Vikings traded for him two years ago. Through 25 regular-season games with Minnesota, Hockenson has caught 155 passes for 1,479 yards, eight touchdowns, and 75 first downs. He has caught at least three passes in all but two of these games, averaging 6.2 catches and 59.2 yards per game.
Minnesota’s other tight ends haven’t been able to replicate Hockenson’s success. Johnny Mundt has been the team’s No. 3 tight end since Hockenson arrived in 2022, and he has taken on Hockenson’s role as the receiving tight end. Josh Oliver is the team’s No. 2 tight end and remains in a blocking role. Through seven games, the two tight ends have combined for 21 receptions, 165 yards, three touchdowns, and eight first downs.
Hockenson is a superior receiving tight end, and the Vikings use him more dynamically in the offense. According to PFF, Hockenson’s average depth of target (ADOT) was 7.5 yards with the Vikings in 2022 and 7.6 yards last year. He averaged 1.65 yards per route run in 2022 and 1.89 yards per route last season.
Without Hockenson, the Vikings haven’t been able to stress defenses consistently in the same manner. Mundt’s ADOT is only 4, while a 31-yard incompletion skews Oliver’s 8.1 mark, which he could never have caught against the Houston Texans. Mundt is only averaging 0.64 yards per route run. Minnesota uses Oliver more sparingly in the passing game, and he’s averaging 0.85 yards.
None of this is too surprising. Hockenson is a former first-round pick, Mundt has been a career TE3, and the Vikings signed Oliver specifically to block. So, how does Hockenson impact the entire offense outside of putting up superior stats to his backups?
Let’s look at the last time Hockenson joined Minnesota’s offense midseason. Acquired via trade before a Week 9 game at Washington, Hockenson made an immediate impact. He caught all nine passes thrown his way for 70 yards. But he also changed how the offense itself looked.
Hockenson’s return will significantly impact the offense beyond the counting numbers. When he joined the Vikings midseason in 2022, he immediately changed how the offense operated. Kirk Cousins’ ADOT was 6.5 yards before Hockenson’s arrival, but that number jumped to 11.2 yards in the first game with him. Cousins’ ADOT was 8.7 yards over the final 11 games of the 2022 season, giving him a season average of 7.9 yards. In his eight games before being injured last year, Cousins’ ADOT was 7.7 yards.
Cousins’ overall production also went up last year. His five highest yardage totals of the season came with Hockenson in the lineup, and the Vikings went 4-1 in these games. Cousins threw three or more touchdowns three times that season, all coming after the Hockenson acquisition.
While Darnold will benefit from Hockenson’s inclusion in the offense, the impact may look different. It’s hard to envision Darnold stretching the field more. His ADOT is 9.7 yards, trailing only Brock Purdy this season (10). That’s two yards more than Cousins was throwing under O’Connell.
When O’Connell was the Rams’ offensive coordinator in 2021, Matthew Stafford had an ADOT of 8.9 yards. O’Connell publicly praises Darnold. Still, one must imagine he would prefer that Darnold align more with seasoned vets like Cousins and Stafford.
Even if Hockenson is running downfield further and more often than Mundt and Oliver, Darnold is more likely to target him in the short game. That will give Darnold a better outlet to get the ball out quickly. Darnold’s time to throw is 3.12 seconds, tied for the second-longest in the NFL among qualified quarterbacks. Cousins was getting the ball out in 2.69 seconds under O’Connell. That’s even more important following Christian Darrisaw’s season-ending injury. Although the team traded for Cam Robinson on Tuesday, he is a downgrade from Darrisaw. O’Connell may opt for fewer long-developing plays without his franchise left tackle in the lineup.
After losing their last two games, the Vikings must get back into the win column to keep pace in the competitive NFC North. Hockenson adds an element to their offense that they haven’t had this year. He’s a mismatch with linebackers and safeties and will give Darnold a dependable target when Jefferson and Addison aren’t open downfield. If he can return to his old form, Minnesota’s offense can become more dangerous and look like the unit we saw in September.
