The Minnesota Vikings will play an AFC South team for the second consecutive week on Sunday. Next up: The Jacksonville Jaguars. Minnesota’s offense still seeks the efficiency it displayed in the season’s first four weeks. Although the Vikings racked up 415 yards against the Indianapolis Colts last Sunday night, they turned the ball over three times. That kept the Colts in the game despite allowing only 227 yards on defense.
Fortunately for Minnesota, the Jaguars have the worst defense they’ve played all year, according to traditional and analytical metrics. Through nine games, the Jaguars rank 31st in yards and 30th in points allowed. That aligns with their defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) and expected points added (EPA) allowed per play, which rank 31st in the league in both metrics.
Everything the Jaguars do or don’t do on defense contributes to their futility. Their 28.4% pressure rate is the fourth-lowest in the NFL, allowing quarterbacks to hold on to the ball for 2.89 seconds per pass, the eighth-highest number in the league. Despite their low-pressure rate, Jacksonville has blitzed opponents on an NFL-low 15.8%.
That presents a fascinating conundrum for Sam Darnold and the Vikings. According to NextGenStats, Darnold has been spectacular against the blitz this season, completing 75.4% of his passes, eight touchdowns, and one interception for a 142.9 passer rating.
However, Darnold’s play dips when teams don’t blitz him. He has completed 67.3% of his passes for nine touchdowns, six picks, and a 93.1 passer rating. Those aren’t catastrophic numbers, but there is a massive dip in his numbers when the defense drops seven players into coverage.
So how do the Vikings counter that? They could lean into their quick-passing game and get the ball out under 2.5 seconds more often. Only four quarterbacks have held on to the ball longer than Darnold this year (3.06 seconds). However, with T.J. Hockenson back in the lineup against the Colts, Darnold got rid of the ball in 2.84 seconds, his second-fastest release of the season.
The Jaguars have been poor in all aspects of their pass defense, and the quick game is no different. They allow the fifth-highest EPA per pass in the league in the quick game, and when they blitz, Jacksonville allows the second-highest EPA per pass. Because of this, the Vikings should be able to dictate the passing game and play on their terms instead of feeling “boxed in” by Darnold’s uneven play when he isn’t blitzed.
It also helps the Vikings that, in addition to Hockenson’s return, they got Jordan Addison more involved in the offense. He caught a season-high five passes against the Colts, including a spectacular touchdown that got the Vikings on the scoreboard. Addison missed two games due to an ankle injury early in the season. However, he appears fully healthy, regardless of his social media posts.
Ultimately, Justin Jefferson is the player who makes Minnesota’s offense go. The star wideout leads the league in yards after back-to-back 100-yard games. Jefferson has been productive all year but went four consecutive games without breaking 100 yards before catching eight balls for 115 yards in Los Angeles. Jefferson also impacts defenses even when he doesn’t get the ball because he demands attention. When he gets catches and targets, the offense operates even more efficiently.
Minnesota’s offense hasn’t been able to feature Hockenson, Addison, and Jefferson together with its starting quarterback since October 8, 2023. Hockenson will continue getting more involved as he returns from his ACL injury. What kind of stress can the three put on a defense after another week of practice?
Aaron Jones also has been a revelation in Minnesota, spearheading a rushing attack they haven’t had since Dalvin Cook’s prime. He’s averaging 4.5 yards per carry and 9.4 yards per reception on 26 catches.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars rank 23rd in EPA and are allowed to backfield targets this season. They rank 16th in yards allowed on the ground game. To help get the ball out of Darnold’s hands quickly, the Vikings could get Jones involved in the screen game to counteract what the receivers are doing downfield.
Going into this game, one underrated aspect is Minnesota’s injuries to kicker Will Reichard and long snapper Andrew DePaola. The Vikings signed kicker John Parker Romo, who has never kicked in an NFL game, as well as long snapper Jake McQuaide to replace them. McQuaide has NFL experience, but special teams operations require precise timing and can determine a game’s outcome. O’Connell is already aggressive, but he may need to be even more so to avoid potential issues in the kicking game.
The Vikings can get their second win in a row after a two-game losing skid created uncertainty after their 5-0 start. Jacksonville’s defense is susceptible to everything Minnesota likes to do on offense. It’s an excellent opportunity for the Vikings to put together a clean, complete game on offense for the first time since September.
