Expectations were high when the Minnesota Twins reported to spring training a year ago. There were plenty of storylines for Twins fans to chew on, but three of the most impactful players were afterthoughts. Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, and Matt Wallner didn’t have a chance to make the Opening Day roster. But by the end of the season, they were key cogs in a team that went on to win the division and end an 18-game postseason losing streak.
While most people expect all three players to be vital components this year, it leads Twins fans to wonder not only who could make the leap but also whether they could have another trio step up in 2024. The rise of three young players in the same season is shocking, but it came with some warning. Lewis was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 draft and hit .313/.405/.534 with five homers, 14 RBI, and 12 stolen bases with Triple-A St. Paul before the Twins called him up in 2022.
After suffering his second ACL tear in 15 months while playing center field, nobody knew what to expect from Lewis. But he hit .356/.412/.778 with six homers and 13 RBI on a 12-game rehab assignment with the Saints and .309/.372/.548 with 15 homers, 52 RBI, and six stolen bases in the majors. Julien had his own hype train, but it wasn’t as strong as Lewis’s. But in 2022, he hit .300/.441/.490 with 17 homers, 67 RBI, and 19 stolen bases in 113 Double-A games, and Team Canada chose him to play in the World Baseball Classic. After socking a pair of homers, Julien returned to Twins camp, and Carlos Correa praised him.
Julien hit .263/.381/.459 with 16 homers, 37 RBI, and three stolen bases in 109 games for the Twins last year. He had lapses at second base, but Julien’s bat was good enough to compensate for it. The Twins had the modern leadoff hitter they had been searching for.
Wallner is the final piece of the equation. He began to turn heads when he hit .299/.436/.597 with 21 homers and 64 RBI in 78 games at Double-A Wichita and made his major league debut in September 2022. He began last season in Triple-A. Wallner hit 291/.403/.524 with 11 homers and 47 RBI in 67 games with the Saints before getting the full-time call-up in July, posting a .507 slugging percentage and smashing 14 homers in 76 games with Minnesota.
Matching Lewis, Wallner, and Julien’s impact from a year ago is a tall order. Since the beginning of the expansion era in 1969, no team had three rookies with a minimum of 100 at-bats each post an OPS over Julien’s .839 mark last season. To guess who could have the same impact, we have to look at some of Minnesota’s weaknesses and which players in the minors could be in a position to take advantage of the opportunity.
The Twins have been using a patchwork solution at first base. Adding Carlos Santana should help, but it might help the Twins more if Alex Kirilloff breaks out. A first-round pick by the Twins in 2016, Kirilloff has flashed potential. He ranked ninth on MLB.com’s prospect rankings and 15th on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects list before the 2019 season.
A wrist injury limited him to a .283/.343/.413 line with nine homers and 43 RBI in 94 games with Double-A Pensacola that year, but Kirilloff made his first major-league plate appearance in Minnesota’s 2020 AL Wild Card Series. He was also a breakout candidate heading into 2021 before another wrist injury shut him down that summer.
Kirilloff has been inconsistent since, but he has shown those same flashes of potential. In 16 games with the Saints last season, Kirilloff tore the cover off the ball, hitting .369/.438/.662 with five homers and 18 RBI. His major league numbers weren’t terrible either, hitting .271/.348/.445 with 11 homers and 41 RBI in 88 games with the Twins. Still, injuries have kept Kirilloff from truly breaking out, and a shoulder injury required him to have another procedure.
If Kirilloff can’t find his form, it could open the door for a forgotten prospect, José Miranda. According to The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman, Miranda had one of the greatest seasons by a Twins prospect in the last 20 years. In 2021, he hit .344/.401/.572 with 30 homers and 94 RBI between Double-A Wichita and Triple-A St. Paul. Miranda’s performance in 2022 led to his major league debut, and he hit .268/.325/.426 with 15 homers and 66 RBI with the Twins.
Miranda was supposed to be Minnesota’s third baseman at the beginning of last season and had slimmed down considerably for that role. But his preseason shoulder injury prevented any breakout, and Miranda’s performance at third base was one of the worst in the American League before the Twins shut him down for the rest of the year.
Kirilloff and Miranda are in their mid-20s, so they could jump Santana by mid-summer to form an effective platoon at third base. However, the Twins would need one more player to complete the trifecta.
What about in center field, where Byron Buxton expects to return as Minnesota’s starter? Although all signs have been positive so far, Buxton has only played more than 100 games once in his career – in 2017.
Willi Castro and perhaps a free agent acquisition could provide insurance. But Austin Martin could shine if the Twins don’t make a move and Castro regresses.
The Toronto Blue Jays took Martin fifth overall in 2020, and the Twins acquired him as part of the José Berríos trade. But Martin has yet to break out. He struggled with a new approach at the plate before suffering a torn UCL that limited him to 67 games last season. Still, Martin hit .263/.387/.405 with six homers, 28 RBI, and 16 stolen bases.
Power has never been part of Martin’s game. He’s more of a gap-to-gap hitter who put up a .605 slugging percentage at Vanderbilt in 2019. But if Martin settles into an outfield role, he could become a backup outfielder or utility player. Martin could also be a starter if Buxton ends up on the injured list again.
If we’re talking about position players, though, Brooks Lee could be the most obvious breakout candidate. The eighth overall pick in the 2022 draft, pundits expected Lee to be a fast riser through the organization, and he made it to Triple-A last year.
Lee hit .275/.347/.461 with 16 homers and 84 RBI between Double-A and Triple-A, and he should make his major league debut at some point in 2024. While some fans expect the Twins to call him up during the summer, his debut could come sooner than later.
Lee’s debut would be imminent if it weren’t for Minnesota’s infield depth. Correa and Lewis are already entrenched on the left side of the infield, while Julien should start at second base. Falvey also mentioned that Julien could move to first. Still, the Twins would probably like to see Lee become more consistent in Triple-A before making the call.
There’s also the possibility that a pitcher could be a breakout candidate. Louie Varland began the year as a starter but became a lights-out reliever during Minnesota’s playoff push. Although the Twins have prepared him to start, he could start the year in Triple-A and take a path similar to Bailey Ober‘s last year.
Chris Paddack could also be in line for a breakout after missing most of the last two seasons due to Tommy John surgery. The Twins used Paddack as a reliever in the playoffs, and he has retained the front office’s faith despite his injury issues. Other arms deeper in the minors, like Matt Canterino, Simeon Woods Richardson, and David Festa, could also have an opportunity. However, they’ll start the season in the minors and must push their way onto the major league roster.
Put it together, and there are plenty of young players who could make a significant impact on the Twins. But matching the historical impact of last year’s trio won’t be easy.
