A week ago, there were plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the Minnesota Twins. Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, and Carlos Correa anchored their lineup and were finally healthy, and the bullpen appeared to be one of the best in baseball.
With a young core that includes Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner, and eventually top prospect Brooks Lee, there was every reason to believe that the Twins would contend in the AL Central this season.
But while there were positive vibes, one question remained.
What about the starting pitching?
Starting pitching was a key reason for Minnesota’s success in 2023, but its lack of depth was a major concern this year. While the team believed it could survive through the season’s opening weeks, the first trip through the rotation didn’t go as planned. The Twins may already have a starting pitching problem five games into the season.
To be fair, any take five games into a season is an overreaction. Even if a hitter gets off to a 0-for-17 start, there’s a good chance they’ll bounce back to their usual level of production by the end of the year. However, to say that Minnesota’s pitching has been a success ignores some underlying problems.
Pablo López started the season promisingly, tossing seven innings against the Kansas City Royals. He’s the team’s ace, so his performance wasn’t surprising. He successfully negotiated to finish the seventh inning and fuel a 2-1 victory.
Joe Ryan took his turn the following day and was just as impressive. Freed from the injury-plagued second half of the season, Ryan pitched well. He allowed one run on three hits with three strikeouts but couldn’t make it out of the sixth inning.
While Ryan stayed in long enough to get the win, it highlighted an early concern for the rotation. Bailey Ober made his first start of the season, and Royals hitters hammered him for a 41.7 barrel rate. He gave up an average exit velocity of 92.7 mph, 4.5 mph higher than his 88.2 mph average from last season.
The Twins had to pull Ober with one out in the second inning, and Louie Varland had a difficult time in Milwaukee. Christian Yelich‘s home run was the lowlight, and Varland allowed three earned runs. He only gave the Twins four innings before turning it over to the ‘pen.
Chris Paddack made his season debut on Wednesday afternoon and allowed two runs on six hits. But it was a laborious start. He threw over 20 pitches in each of the four innings he pitched.
Put it all together, and Minesota’s starters combined for 21.2 innings through the first trip through the rotation. Things could have been a lot worse, given the damage wasn’t bad outside of Ober’s start. However, the lack of length is a concern when you see what’s behind them.
Anthony DeSclafani was supposed to be the fifth man in the rotation, but an elbow injury that led to two trades over the offseason landed him on the operating table. The 33-year-old will not pitch for the Twins this season, and he is expected to undergo flexor tendon surgery.
Minnesota’s Triple-A reinforcements also don’t inspire confidence. Matt Canterino has already landed on the injured list and may be more of a bullpen option. Meanwhile, David Festa and Simeon Woods Richardson may not be ready to be full-time MLB starters. Jordan Balazovic is six weeks removed from the Twins designating him for assignment.
It’s a far cry from what the Twins had in St. Paul last year. Ober began the season at Triple-A and eventually forced his way into the majors, and they called Varland up in late April. Varland stuck around until June and was an effective reliever late in the season. But it wasn’t just young arms that helped piece Minnesota’s rotation together; the Twins kept finding depth throughout the year.
They signed Dallas Keuchel to a minor league deal, and he helped the Twins on the mound during their stretch run. Josh Winder and Dereck Rodriguez made cameos while the starting rotation did most of the work.
While there were capable arms in the minors, the Twins reaped the benefits of a rotation that could handle a big workload. López led the team with 194 innings, but Sonny Gray (184.0 IP) and Kenta Maeda (104.1 IP) combined for 288.1 innings that the Twins needed to replace this season.
López did his part, but it’s a concern with the rest of the group. Nobody will complain if Ryan allows one run in most of his starts, but he’ll need to go deeper than he did on Saturday to pick up the slack. Ober, Varland, and Paddack could handle a bigger workload as the season progresses. However, there’s also a world where Ober continues to struggle, Varland looks more like a bullpen arm, and Paddack has another setback after his second Tommy John surgery.
If any of those scenarios happen, Twins fans will use their hindsight to suggest they should have signed Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery. Even if they settled to sign Michael Lorenzen, it would at least add another layer of protection, which is why they were so miffed when Joe Pohlad tightened the purse strings last winter.
Again, we’re five games into the season, and all five starters could be going deep into games and pitching effectively by the time the calendar hits June. However, Minnesota has reduced its margin of error, leaving what should be an optimistic squad with an underlying concern.
