Spring training signals the start of a new season. It is also typically the end of the offseason for most teams across baseball who want to have their rosters set and ready to train together for a new campaign. For the most part, the Minnesota Twins have their roster set.
It’s been a complicated offseason for Twins fans. Following the best moment for the franchise in 20 years, Minnesota’s TV deal drama that’s impacted their offseason spending has filled this offseason. The biggest impact the lack of spending has had on the 2024 Twins isn’t in the lineup or the bullpen but in the starting rotation.
Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Tyler Mahle left in free agency. Each pitcher offered a different value to the Twins. But having all three of them on the roster to begin the 2023 season gave Minnesota depth the franchise hadn’t had in a long time. Anthony DeSclafani is their only addition to the starting rotation via the Jorge Polanco trade. However, the 33-year-old pitcher is more of a backend of the rotation option.
The fanbase hoped Minnesota’s front office could land a starter to rival the value lost with Gray. It doesn’t look like that trade is coming soon. A top-end starter would be better for the roster, but the Twins need more starting pitching overall. Recent reports indicate that the team is interested in some back-of-the-rotation types in Noah Syndergaard and Michael Lorenzen. If the Twins are in contention for either pitcher, which one should they prioritize signing?
Syndergaard is a household name. His long blonde hair and blazing fastballs made him one of the more iconic pitchers since he reached the big leagues in 2015. He pitched for the Los Angeles Dodgers and Cleveland Guardians last year. Two organizations known for developing pitching thought he was worthy of a change to reclaim some of his past production. His 6.50 ERA wasn’t great last year, but he had a much more respectable 3.94 ERA in 2022. The Twins wouldn’t need Syndergaard, 31, to be an ace. They just need him to throw five decent innings every five days.
Syndergaard turned into “Thor” from 2015 to 2019, with a 3.31 ERA and a 26.4 percent strikeout clip over 118 starts. Prime Thor seems to have been gone since needing Tommy John Surgery in May 2020. Syndergaard’s production wasn’t to his standard in 2022, except things got worse for him in 2023. Syndergaard averaged 99.6 mph on his fastball in 2017 but threw 92.3 mph last year. Last season, Syndergaard recorded a career-low 14.3 percent strikeout rate. It’s led to a career-low 4.9 walk rate, which seems fine, but it signals that his fastball is slow, and he throws too much around the strike zone. Syndergaard is a savvy pitcher and a decent fit for the clubhouse. However, he gives off too many “2022 Chris Archer” vibes.
Many Twins fans won’t be as familiar with Lorenzen. Still, his nine-season career featured stops with the Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, and split time a year ago between the Detroit Tigers and Philadelphia Phillies. Lorenzen owns a career 4.11 ERA but had a 3.58 ERA with the Tigers through 18 starts in 2023.
Like Syndergaard, Lorenzen has experienced a sharp decline over the last couple of seasons. But unlike Syndergaard, Lorenzen still seems to have his fastball. He averages 94.5 mph on his heater, which is noticeably better than Syndergaard’s. Lorenzen also had an 11-run value score on his fastball in 2023. A 6-run value from his slider a season ago still shows that he has at least two pitches to work with.
Getting a third pitch to become productive would be the challenge for the Twins, especially considering all of his other pitches had a negative run value in 2023. Minnesota could tinker with his sweeper or changeup, with the lowest expected weighted on-base average (.265 xwOBA) of all his pitches.
Lorenzen would slot into the middle of Minnesota’s rotation and give them some much-needed depth. However, Lorenzen signed a one-year, $8.5 million contract last winter. It’s unclear if the Twins have the roughly $8-10 million per year needed to bring in Lorenzen. Syndergaard might be more affordable for them. But in a vacuum, the Twins should prioritize Lorenzen.
Should the Twins aim higher than having Syndergaard or Lorenzen as the finishing touches of their pitching staff? Absolutely. However, even though signing either wouldn’t make headlines, Minnesota would benefit from adding them.
Last season, the Twins were blessed with health from their top two starters. Pablo Lopez pitched in 32 games in the regular season last year, while Gray added 32 starts. Both never missed their turn in the rotation all year. Excluding two starts by openers, the Twins only had eight combined pitchers make a start for the team in 2023. Compare that to 2022, where the Twins had 14 pitchers start a game for them.
Assuming the Twins stay closer to the 2023 range, they still need more arms. There are currently six arms that Minnesota can count on to make consistent big-league starts. The Twins have some prospects like Simeon Woods-Richardson and David Festa. One more veteran option can build more depth to prevent the young arms from being relied upon too early if they aren’t major-league-ready. Dallas Keuchel’s 5.79 ERA in 37.2 innings wasn’t highly productive for Minnesota in 2023. However, he threw 10 starts for a team that needed a starter in August and September that season. Adding either Syndergaard or Lorenzen can be a similar move to maintain strong depth.
Minnesota’s free-agent options to deepen the starting rotation while keeping the team competitive are slim. Lorenzen and Syndergaard could each offer some help to ensure the rotation gets the extra depth it needs to last an entire season. If the Twins have to decide between the two veterans, Lorenzen is the better option to help fortify Minnesota’s depth in the starting rotation.
