It’s been difficult to get a read on Louie Varland in the first two-and-a-half seasons of his career. He occasionally carves up above-average lineups, pounding the strike zone with his high-velocity four-seam fastball and plus cutter and knuckle curve. Then, he’ll suddenly be unable to locate anything while animatedly struggling on the mound.
Varland has the raw stuff necessary to challenge major league hitters consistently. However, his significant performance volatility has left those following the team wondering what the future looks like for the 26-year-old from North St. Paul.
After giving up six earned runs over 4 ⅓ innings pitched in a start against the Detroit Tigers in mid-June 2023, the Twins demoted Varland to Triple-A. At the time, it looked like Minnesota’s front office was giving the young starter a breather while opening up a rotation spot for veteran starter Kenta Maeda, who was returning from the 15-day IL. However, Varland never returned to the rotation. Instead, the organization converted him into a reliever.
The Twins called Varland up on September 6, and he excelled as a reliever down the stretch. He earned a 1.50 ERA and 2.84 FIP while holding opposing batters to a .150/.171/.300 slash line over 40 at-bats. The hard-tossing righty threw strikes on 70% of his 173 pitches, manufacturing a 17-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He thrived as a medium-to-high-leverage, high-velocity right-handed arm out of the ‘pen and played a role in helping the organization win their first playoff game in 19 years.
Minnesota converted him back into a starter this offseason, and he earned a spot in the rotation after Anthony DeSclafani suffered a flexor tendon injury in his throwing arm that ended his season in Spring Training. However, Varland struggled in his first four starts, generating a 9.18 ERA, 7.67 FIP, and a .365/.437/.649 opponent slash line over 16 2/3 innings pitched.
Varland struggled to suppress home runs and allowed an alarming amount of hard-hit balls, and the Twins demoted him to Triple-A St. Paul in late April. Varland was volatile again this year. He looked serviceable in a spot start against the Colorado Rockies on June 11, allowing zero runs in five innings. However, he gave up 12 earned runs in a Triple-A start against the Toledo Mud Hens on June 23.
However, he has performed well lately.
Varland is on the 40-man roster and is the team’s top starting pitcher in Triple-A, who could step in at a moment’s notice. The Twins have called him up as their 27th man, and he’s expected to start the second game of Friday’s doubleheader against the AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians. On a macro level, Varland’s performance will be pivotal in the team’s ability to catch Cleveland as the season dwindles. However, a more direct and profound question looms over his next start.
Will this be his last opportunity to start for the Twins?
This question garners even more interest and speculation, considering that Joe Ryan left his most recent start against the Chicago Cubs with right triceps tightness. The Twins believe they have avoided serious injury with Ryan. However, they may place him on the 15-day IL, meaning he will miss at least his next two to three starts. Varland is Ryan’s most likely replacement. Post-hype arms Josh Winder and Randy Dobnak aren’t viable options. Minnesota just called up budding top prospect Zebby Matthews to Triple-A, but he isn’t on the 40-man roster.
Therefore, Varland will likely get a handful of starting opportunities this month, assuming he doesn’t implode like he did earlier this season. However, if Ryan can return to the rotation in August or early September, there is reason to believe the organization could convert Varland into a reliever, similar to what they did last season.
According to FanGraphs, the Twins have an 84.3% chance of making the playoffs. Therefore, the organization would be wise to maximize the hard-throwing righty’s velocity and convert him back to a mid-to-high-leverage reliever as long as Ryan returns to the rotation and the four other starters stay healthy.
If the Twins convert Varland into a reliever with the intention of him helping them make another postseason push, there is reason to suspect they could permanently keep him in that role. The emergence of Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and the aforementioned Matthews, alongside fellow budding prospects Andrew Morris and potentially Marco Raya, leaves the organization in an acceptable spot from a depth perspective for next season.
Given this circumstance, team decision-makers could be incentivized to subtract Varland’s value as starting pitching depth in favor of a potential high-velocity, high-leverage reliever with team control until the end of the 2029 MLB season.
