Twins

Joe Ryan Has An All-Star Skillset

Photo Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

The MLB All-Star Game displays the best stars in baseball, but best kinda means several different things.

Every year, the voting process leaves out several snubs. Some are big-name players, like Francisco Lindor this year. Meanwhile, others are best-kept secrets, like Christian Walker.

While the players with the best statistics will likely make the cut, it’s no guarantee.

Willi Castro will fill in for Jose Altuve, while Carlos Correa made the All-Star team but is sitting out to recover from plantar fasciitis. Still, nobody from the Minnesota Twins’ pitching staff will represent the American League. However, that doesn’t mean the Twins don’t have All-Star-caliber arms.

Joe Ryan may not have All-Star statistics, but he owns a 3.53 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 27.0 K%.

It’s almost getting old to say Ryan has a terrific fastball. It’s been the case for years and is still true today. Ryan has as much velocity and command of his fastball as any pitcher in the game today.

With his dominant fastball-cutter pairing, Chicago White Sox bullpen flamethrower-turned-starter Garrett Crochet has one of the best fastballs in the game. Crochet’s four-seamer averages 97 mph. While he doesn’t pound the top of the zone with it (46th percentile low location percentage), it works well as a whiff-inducer.

Crochet has a solid foundation to build on, with a 15.9% swinging strike rate (95th percentile) and a 69.7% strike rate (78th percentile). However, Ryan has constructed an even stronger foundation for himself.

With some wacky illusions and somehow ever-increasing velocity, Ryan has maintained a strike rate greater than 70% and a swinging strike rate greater than 13.8% in each of the past three seasons, with figures of 71.3% (87th percentile) and 14.4% (91st percentile) this year.

Shota Imanaga would have been an excellent pickup for Minnesota. Instead, he has dominated for the Chicago Cubs en route to an All-Star bid. He’s a lot like Ryan with a “rising” fastball, a splitter (or split-change in Ryan’s case), and a sweeper – except he’s a lefty.

Imanaga’s success is closely tied to his absurd splitter. However, while Ryan’s statistics on his splitter can’t compete, Ryan has a better overall expected ERA (xERA), WHIP, FIP (xFIP), and K-BB%. ERA may be the most important statistic for a pitcher, but the aforementioned statistics, aside from WHIP, are more reliable in predicting future ERA than ERA itself.

Again, it doesn’t matter for July 2024, but Ryan’s peripheral stats indicate he could be even better. Most importantly, his offseason work paid off; he’s nearly fully unlocked his skillset.

After throwing too many splitters in the zone last year, Ryan has found consistency and control on the pitch and drastically lowered his zone rate. Ryan’s splitter can live the life it is supposed to now that he’s throwing only 36.5% in the zone compared to 42.1% last year.

The pitch may not produce results like Imanaga’s, but Ryan doesn’t appear far from breakthrough success. With fewer splitters in the zone, Ryan’s low induced vertical break (IVB) and high horizontal break “changeup” should work well with his fairly “straight” four-seamer.

Though the whiffs will come, Ryan’s splitter generates grounders similar to Logan Webb’s changeup. At 61%, Ryan’s ground ball rate is just behind Webb’s 63.5% mark on his changeup. Webb is having a down year because his changeup has typically generated grounders at a 68% or higher rate. Regardless, it’s still noteworthy for Ryan.

Ryan’s propensity to throw high four-seamers – and many of them – made him an ideal candidate for a sinker. He could still base his approach around the high four-seamer, but he would benefit from mixing in a few surprise sinkers to run in on a hitter’s hands to force grounders or foul balls.

Tyler Glasnow may not be available at this year’s All-Star Game, but he’s the modern poster child for high four-seam pitchers in the MLB. He added a sinker for 2024 after years of chucking four-seamers in the zone at a massive volume. The pitch is turning into grounders often (61.9% ground ball rate, 68th percentile), but hitters haven’t chased the pitch (20.8% chase rate, 32nd percentile).

That’s partially because Glasnow doesn’t utilize it WELL as a jammer. He doesn’t throw it inside often (32.3 inside location percentage, 30th percentile). Conversely, Ryan throws the pitch inside (91st percentile inside location percentage). Hitters chase it (40% chase rate, 92nd percentile) and struggle to get under the pitch (68.2% ground ball rate, 83rd percentile). Ryan is already a master jammer.

Ryan is not an MLB unknown, but he still hasn’t played in an All-Star Game. While that won’t change in 2024, he still has an All-Star caliber skillset.

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