The Minnesota Twins probably won’t make a splash at this year’s trade deadline. While other playoff contenders may rush to lock up deals for power-hitting second basemen, as the New York Yankees did with Jazz Chisholm Jr., or for burgeoning aces, like the Atlanta Braves with Garrett Crochet, the Twins will largely stay put.
MLB insiders have pointed to the Twins’ financial concerns about acquiring players, which may prevent Minnesota from picking up high-salary players. However, the Twins could scour the market for reclamation projects.
The Dodgers found something in Lance Lynn last year when they acquired him from the St. Louis Cardinals. Minnesota could follow their lead and pursue Ryne Nelson.
Nelson has a 4.87 ERA through 260.2 innings with the Arizona Diamondbacks this year. Though not a highly coveted player, he has several top-notch skills and pitches that any team would love to work with.
Ironically, Nelson’s swing rate highlights this. Many of the league’s best pitchers force hitters to swing – and swing often. Baseball Savant’s swing rate leaderboard among pitchers is loaded with elite arms: Shota Imanaga, George Kirby, Jared Jones, Bailey Ober, and Tarik Skubal reside in the top ten… along with Ryne Nelson. The difference is that Nelson has a significantly lower whiff rate and out-of-zone swing and miss rate than his peers – something that almost defines Nelson.
Nelson’s four-seamer is excellent. He averages 95 mph, 18 inches of induced vertical break, and a 101 MLBPitchProfiler Stuff+ — all the traits of a good fastball. Unfortunately, Nelson hasn’t been able to put the rest of his arsenal together, allowing hitters to sit on the pitch and crush it with ease.
The pitch’s 10.7% swinging strike rate (SwStr, 59th percentile) this season is the best mark of Nelson’s young career. It sports a .343 wOBA (47th percentile) this season, so there’s room for growth in limiting hard contact while increasing swing and miss.
An excellent place to start would be spotting it further up in the zone. Despite having the traits of a high-whiff fastball, Nelson locates the pitch up in the zone just 47.8% of the time (hiLoc%, 37th percentile).
Meanwhile, Joe Ryan hasn’t dipped below 57.9% in that stat since his rookie season in 2021. It is easier said than done, but locating his fastball up would pay huge dividends for Nelson.
The rest of his arsenal is harder to diagnose.
His changeup grades well per MLBPitchProfiler, with a 118 Stuff+ and a 108 xWhiff+ (expected whiff). The changeup’s 11.6 mph difference from his four-seamer and better-than-average horizontal break make it an ideal pitch for his “straight” fastball. He’s even located the pitch effectively, with a 60.3% solid armside location rate (aLoc, 69th percentile) and a 100 Location+ per Fangraphs.
Despite the overwhelmingly positive peripheral stats, Nelson’s changeup has only mustered a 9.6% SwStr (26th percentile) and a .418 wOBA (16th percentile).
Nelson’s cutter creates a similar dilemma. It’s supposed to get whiffs based on its shape, as evidenced by a 118 xWhiff+. Nelson has located it well en route to a 104 Location+ and 65.2% glove-side location rate (gLoc, 81st percentile), but hitters have had no trouble against it. The pitch’s 7% SwStr (19th percentile) and .372 wOBA (40th percentile) have room to improve.
These three pitches comprise 84% of Nelson’s throws, with a slider and curveball making up the rest. Improvements across all three would fully unlock Nelson’s potential. It’s not clear what those improvements look like.
He’s struggled with tipping pitches before, which could explain why he loses so much value in the “Chase” region:
By Run Value, Nelson loses more value in takes well outside the zone than the league average.
If it isn’t from Nelson tipping pitches or not having the necessary stuff and movement, Nelson’s whiff problem could stem from his approach and predictability.
Perhaps Nelson throws an over-concentration of breaking and offspeed pitches in two-strike counts, and hitters can quickly identify these pitches and lay off. Nelson’s pitch plinko chart doesn’t quite illustrate this. Instead, it presents more of the opposite:
Nelson throws plenty of four-seamers in two-strike counts, almost too many.
The pieces are there, but Nelson is struggling to finish the puzzle. Should they invest in him, his conundrum may be too difficult to overcome in the short time the Twins would have, with the season nearing its end. Regardless, Nelson could become an affordable back-end starter for a frugal team in need of starting pitching.
