After winning games over the Carolina Panthers, Minnesota Vikings, and Chicago Bears to close out the regular season, the Green Bay Packers have punched their ticket into the postseason as the NFC’s seventh and final seed. They will face former coach Mike McCarthy and the second-seeded Dallas Cowboys this Sunday for the Wild Card round.
Green Bay’s matchup in Arlington will be enticing not only because of the connections between McCarthy and the Packers but also because we’ll get to see their red-hot offense against Dallas’ stout defense.
Getting the ball into Aaron Jones’ hands as often as possible in both the run and pass game is Green Bay’s best option against the Cowboys’ middle-of-the-pack run defense. Remember the last time Green Bay played in Dallas? Jones had 109 yards on 19 carries and scored four touchdowns in a 34-24 victory.
Dallas has Malik Hooker, Jayron Kearse, Trevon Diggs, and Stephon Gilmore in the secondary. Dante Fowler Jr., Chauncey Golston, and DeMarcus Lawrence can get after the quarterback. And don’t forget about All-Pro linebackers Micah Parsons and Leighton Vander Esch.
Dan Quinn coordinates the Cowboys’ defense, and he has given the Packers issues in the past when he was with the Seattle Seahawks in the early 2010s. On opening night in 2014, the Seahawks’ defense allowed just 16 points against Aaron Rodgers and 22 points in the NFC Championship of that year when the Seahawks came back from down 16 to win the game 28-22 and advance to Super Bowl XLIX.
The Cowboys had the fifth-best total defense during the regular season, giving up just under 300 total yards per game. Their pass defense is also ranked fifth, allowing only 187.4 passing yards per game. But Dallas’ weak link is their run defense. They’re 16th in the league, allowing 112.4 yards per game on the ground.
As a whole, the Cowboys only give up 18.5 points per game to their opponents. Jordan Love has been playing his best football over the past two months. With three touchdown pass performances against the Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, and Vikings. Green Bay’s offense has figured out how to get the ball into their playmakers’ hands while getting young, inexperienced guys involved.
That game was four years ago, but Jones has had tremendous performances in the last three games, rushing for a combined 358 yards on 63 carries. That’s an average of 5.7 yards per rush. He also had some big carries late against Chicago that put that game away.
Regarding the passing game, Green Bay’s young receiving corps has played tremendously over the past few months. But they may not get separation against Dallas’ stars in their secondary. Still, Jayden Reed was outstanding against the Vikings and the Bears. He got separation from their defensive backs and gained a lot of yards after the catch. Against Minnesota, he took the ball 22 yards after the catch to score right before halftime. He had a big catch against the Bears in the fourth quarter, where he ran 39 yards after snagging the ball for a massive momentum change.
If Trevon Diggs defends Reed, he should be able to get some separation on the route. Diggs is a ballhawk but has struggled to maintain coverage during routes.
Dallas will probably put up points on the Packers’ defense. Green Bay’s defense has played well the past two weeks, really allowing only 12 points due to a muffed punt against Minnesota that resulted in a score a couple of plays later. But that was against an injured Vikings offense starting their fourth quarterback of the season in Jaren Hall, and a weak Bears offense that ranks 20th in total offense with an average of 323 total yards per game.
The Cowboys have one of the best offenses in the NFL this season, and Dak Prescott is playing at an MVP-caliber level. He also has a lot of weapons in CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Jalen Tolbert, and Jake Ferguson.
The Packers should also be able to put up points against the Cowboys if they focus on getting Jones the ball. If the Cowboys can neutralize Jones, their young receivers should make some plays. Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and Bo Melton have all been productive over the last month.
But remember, the Packers are on a hot streak entering the postseason, and anything can happen now that they’re in there.
