The Green Bay Packers head to Minneapolis for a 3:25 p.m. showdown with Sam Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings. It’s a must-win for the Packers to maintain their chances of securing the fifth seed.
Minnesota defeated Green Bay 31-29 at Lambeau Field earlier this season. Darnold threw for 275 yards and three touchdowns, and the Vikings led 28-0 before halftime. They intercepted Jordan Love three times, pressured him 25 times, and recorded eight hits.
Green Bay’s offense felt stagnant that afternoon because of play calling and execution. Love was making his first start since his MCL injury in Brazil, and he had limited mobility and difficulty navigating the pocket. Matt LaFleur also called too many long-developing concepts, allowing Minnesota’s front seven to apply constant pressure on Love. Two of his three turnover-worthy plays occurred when he held the ball for over 2.5 seconds.
He threw two interceptions against the blitz in that game. Last year, Love had only one interception against the blitz. Brian Flores did an excellent job disguising pressures and coverages, which created pre-snap confusion.
Love has had more trouble against the blitz this year than in 2023. Last season, he led all passers in big-time throws and completions against the blitz and ranked third in yards. However, he leads the league in interceptions against the blitz this year, and his big-time throw rate has dropped by 3.6%.
People know Brian Flores’ defense for its blitz-heavy philosophy, and he will likely send five or more players at Love relentlessly on Sunday. However, the Packers can learn from their experience of losing to a divisional opponent due to relying too heavily on long-developing plays instead of incorporating quick-developing options into their arsenal.
In Week 4 of the 2023 season, the Detroit Lions visited Lambeau Field for a Thursday night showdown. In that game, Love completed 75% of his passes and wasn’t sacked when holding the ball for under 2.5 seconds. However, when he held it for longer than 2.5 seconds, his completion percentage dropped to 55%, and he was sacked five times.
Aidan Hutchinson generated eight pressures on his own, while the Lions totaled 29 as a team. Green Bay called a lot of long-developing concepts, and the offense struggled to get anything going.
Green Bay made the necessary adjustments, and the Lions had no answers for LaFleur’s offense on Thanksgiving. Love completed 81.35% of his passes for three touchdowns and a 135.7 passer rating when holding the ball for under 2.5 seconds. These quick-developing plays kept Detroit’s defense guessing and made them less effective in bringing pressure. The Lions tallied just 16 pressures in that game, 13 fewer than in Week 4.
Four weeks after the Lions visited Lambeau, the Vikings came to town. In that game, Love completed only three of eight attempts under pressure, finished with a completion rate below 50%, and threw an interception when holding the ball for over 2.5 seconds.
However, Love delivered a masterful performance when the two teams met again in Week 17. He completed 81.8% of his passes for two touchdowns under pressure and 72% of his passes for two touchdowns and three big-time throws against the blitz. All three of his touchdown passes came when holding the ball for over 2.5 seconds.
The Packers did an excellent job of exploiting Flores’ blitz-heavy scheme. Love completed 94.7% of his passes that traveled 0-9 yards or were behind the line of scrimmage, including one for a touchdown. Minnesota had to focus on defending the short game, which opened opportunities in deeper areas. Love earned a 92.5 deep passing grade that Sunday night, above his 2023 season grade of 85.7.
A pattern emerges with Green Bay’s offense against the Lions and Vikings. Although they went 0-2 against Detroit in 2024, they moved the ball considerably more efficiently in their second meeting. After losing their first game against the Lions, Green Bay dominated them in their second matchup, mirroring what happened against the Vikings in 2023. Much of this improvement stemmed from the offense adapting its play style for those games.
Love’s production against the blitz has declined this season. However, he’s been heating up recently, completing 16 of 20 passes for two touchdowns against the blitz over the last two weeks. Still, the best way for the Packers to move the ball against Minnesota is by getting it to their playmakers quickly and letting them create yards after the catch.
Entering Week 16, Green Bay’s pass catchers led the league in yards after the catch per reception. Jayden Reed ranked fourth among wide receivers, while Tucker Kraft led all tight ends with a minimum of 40 targets, averaging 9.3 yards after the catch per reception. Josh Jacobs also leads all running backs in missed tackles forced on passing plays.
The Packers don’t need to rely solely on quick-developing plays as the foundation of their offense. Green Bay’s offense is a top-five unit in EPA per pass and has enough talent across its skill positions to challenge defenses with a versatile passing attack. However, if the Vikings get aggressive, the Packers must make them pay. By forcing hesitation in Minnesota’s defense, Green Bay can create more opportunities for deeper shots downfield.
Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams have punished Minnesota’s defense with screens to the flat. The Packers must find a way to replicate that formula while keeping Flores’ defense honest and respecting the vertical game.
We’re in for a hard-fought fourth-quarter battle in Minneapolis, and it’s not far-fetched to think these two rivals could meet again in January, likely in the NFC Championship. This game is a prime opportunity for Green Bay to march into enemy territory, impose their will, and set the tone for a third matchup in the playoffs.
