The Green Bay Packers are fresh off a 38-10 drubbing of the San Francisco 49ers. While the Niners were missing a few key pieces, the Packers can use the same script to beat the Miami Dolphins at Lambeau on Thanksgiving.
Green Bay can do this in several ways. It starts with controlling the game’s tempo. The Packers jumped out to a double-digit lead against the Niners and used their best weapon, Josh Jacobs, to control the game’s flow.
Jacobs had a hat trick against the Niners, scoring three times and rushing for 106 yards. Jacobs is third in the NFL in rushing with 944 yards and has seven scores. If the Packers can take an early lead, they can use Jacobs to keep the clock moving and keep the game in their hands with their powerful running game. With Romeo Doubs‘ status in doubt, Green Bay will have to lean on Jacobs even more.
Green Bay’s defense only allowed the Lions to score 17 points the last time the two teams met in Lambeau. However, the defense failed to take the ball away, which the team had done well until that game. The Packers led the NFL in takeaways for 10 weeks. After the Niners game, they are tied for second with 22 takeaways while sticking in first with 11 fumble recoveries.
The Packers have to face Miami’s similarly powerful offense with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and stud receivers Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. The Dolphins’ 5-6 record can be a bit deceiving, but they have won three in a row since Tua returned. Those wins are against the Los Angeles Rams, the Las Vegas Raiders, and the New England Patriots. Still, a win is a win in the NFL.
Miami has playmakers at every position and with an innovative offensive coach in Mike McDaniel, so the Packers’ defense has to play smart. Green Bay’s defense played a backup quarterback in Brandon Allen last week, and Tua is a huge upgrade over him. Still, the offense will be similar. Kyle Shanahan, McDaniel, and LaFleur come from the Sean McVay coaching tree.
The Packers dominated the line of scrimmage against the Niners, which allowed them to control the run game. Green Bay allowed only 44 yards to Jordan Mason and Christian McCaffrey. They held San Francisco’s powerful rushing attack to only 2.8 yards per attempt.
The Dolphins present another challenge with the speedy De’Von Achane. Although Miami’s offensive line is not the best, it’s solid, with Terron Armstead leading the way as PFF’s second-highest-graded tackle. The group is on the better side of yards per attempt and sacks allowed. That puts extra pressure on Green Bay’s front seven to build off an impressive performance last week and be good again against a creative offense.
Forcing turnovers and winning the turnover battle will be crucial for the Packers to seal this victory. Green Bay’s defense must force turnovers like they did against San Francisco. However, Love must also be responsible with the ball, like he was against the 49ers.
Although some of San Francisco’s defenders bailed Love out by dropping interceptions, he played a solid game. It was the first game of the season in which Love did not throw an interception. If the Packers are going to win at home against Miami, Love will have to ensure he doesn’t give Maimi’s potent offense any extra chances to score.
Green Bay must get out to a fast start, be efficient on offense, run the ball with Jacobs, and take the ball away. If they do that, the Packers can continue to win and get Love his turkey leg on Thanksgiving.
All stats and data via ESPN, Green Bay Packers, and NFL unless otherwise noted.
