One of the Green Bay Packers’ most incredible stats this season is their ability to steal the ball from opposing offenses.
Last season, the Packers had 18 total turnovers, including only seven interceptions (the second-fewest in the league).
But after just five games this season, the Packers have already forced a league-high 14 turnovers, including nine interceptions. Green Bay has two more interceptions than all of last season and is only four takeaways shy of matching last year’s total.
When the Packers brought in Jeff Hafley to salvage their defense, he wanted to be aggressive and force turnovers. So far, he’s lived up to that bill of sale. Green Bay is 3-2 in part thanks to those turnovers and the offense’s ability to score off them, a vast improvement from last season.
But on a down-by-down basis, the defense hasn’t looked as pretty. It has given up time and points at opportunistic moments, struggled to impact the quarterback, and had multiple corners get beat on a regular basis. The defense ranks 17th overall by DVOA. That’s not amazing, but it is an improvement on the unit under Joe Barry’s leadership. Still, the team is counting on a volatile method of defense.
Is relying on turnovers a viable long-term strategy?
Taking the ball from opposing offenses is, no surprise, one of the best things a defense can do. Not only are you preventing your opponent from getting points on the board (the goal of defensive football), but you’re also killing their momentum and often getting your offense into favorable positions to score.
Generating turnovers is very good for a defense, and the Packers are currently the best in the league at it.
So, what’s the issue?
The problem is that, between the big plays, there are a lot of huge question marks about the defense’s ability to stop the offense.
Xavier McKinney leads the team in takeaways with five interceptions and a fumble recovery. He’s been an amazing addition to Green Bay’s defense. The offense scored off his takeaways against the Los Angeles Rams, leading the team to victory.
Between those big moments, though, were struggles. On their final touchdown, the Rams effortlessly pushed the ball downfield, picking on the corner depth without Jaire Alexander. The pass rush was better than in Week 4 but still was inconsistent; their four-man rush wasn’t working. Despite some decent plays, Rashan Gary and Kenny Clark aren’t playing to their usual standards.
Green Bay’s defense excels at generating turnovers, but everything else is still a work in progress. League history shows that simply being great at turnovers isn’t enough to lead a team to greatness.
In 2023, the top seven teams in turnover generation were the Baltimore Ravens (31), New York Giants (31), Buffalo Bills (30), New Orleans Saints (29), Chicago Bears (28), Cleveland Browns (28), and San Francisco 49ers (28). Some of those teams include well-rounded defenses capable of winning in other ways. The Giants, who tied for first, are not one of those teams. They finished 6-11 despite their high turnover generation. Their 407 points allowed was one of the worst in the league. Despite a high turnover rate, the Bears similarly gave up a lot of points (379).
Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs, who won the Super Bowl, forced fewer turnovers than even the Packers, with just 17. However, they gave up the second-fewest points (294).
Of course, this isn’t a completely decisive argument. The Giants and Bears also had atrocious offenses, further burdening the defense, while Kansas City has Patrick Mahomes.
But it shows that high turnover generation doesn’t translate to being an amazing defense. Inevitably, there will be games where you can’t steal the ball. In those cases, you’re relying on other fundamentals, and Green Bay hasn’t shown an ability to shine elsewhere.
It doesn’t mean they can’t get there. Green Bay has a new scheme under a new defensive coordinator. Many players are still transitioning, and the team relies on young players in major roles. Their best cornerback has missed the last two games, and their two best defensive linemen haven’t come close to producing the way we’ve seen them do in the past. It’s not time to panic just yet.
The turnovers are fun, exciting, cool, and neat, especially after last season’s lack of them. However, they disguise that this defense relies on a volatile path to success over sustainable methods. If the Packers can build up the rest of their defense to complement their turnovers, watch out.
