We are just over two weeks away from Wild Card weekend, and the Green Bay Packers are the sixth seed in the playoff standings. They are third in the NFC North and have been mathematically eliminated from a division win. They can still climb to the fifth seed by beating the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears, but they would need the Detroit Lions to win in Week 18.
The Philadelphia Eagles hold the second seed and would host the seventh-seeded Washington Commanders. Green Bay would face the Los Angeles Rams, who have the third seed. Meanwhile, as the fifth seed, the Minnesota Vikings would travel to face the NFC South champion, either the Atlanta Falcons or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Detroit Lions hold the No. 1 seed and control their destiny to secure home-field advantage and a first-round bye. However, the Vikings face Detroit in Week 18 and would secure the NFC’s No. 1 seed if they win out.
With Green Bay out of the NFC North race, their playoff run will begin on the road against a division champion. If the Packers win out and the Vikings lose in Week 18, they’ll face either the NFC West or NFC South champion, likely entering as favorites in both matchups. However, if Matt LaFleur’s team goes 1-1 in the final two games and the Commanders beat the Falcons and Cowboys, Green Bay would drop to the seventh seed.
Packers fans have been debating potential playoff matchups as the current standings take shape. It’s common sense among fans that the Packers must avoid the Eagles in the first round. That’s sound reasoning; Philadelphia is a much better team than any team in the West or the South. The Eagles also already defeated Green Bay in the regular season.
Green Bay must win out to avoid a trip to Philadelphia in the first round of the playoffs. If they reach 12 wins, the Packers would need the Commanders to lose at least one game.
However, the Packers are probably not focused on avoiding the Eagles — or any team.
Green Bay travels to Minnesota for a pivotal showdown with the Vikings, which will determine their opportunity to get the fifth seed heading into the season’s final week. Fans had hoped for Jaire Alexander‘s return from his PCL injury, but Matt LaFleur dampened expectations, saying, “I’d say probably not” when asked about Alexander’s chances of playing.
Alexander has fully participated in practice for the first two days of the week for the last three weeks but has taken a limited role on the third day. Only the Packers understand the extent of his injury, but with consistent practice participation, it’s reasonable to assume he’s nearing a return.
It’s hard to argue that having Alexander on the field Sunday wouldn’t be in Green Bay’s best interest. The Vikings have a top-10 passing offense in EPA/pass, with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison posing major threats on the outside. Perhaps Alexander isn’t fully healthy, or the Packers are prioritizing his long-term availability to avoid a setback that could sideline him for the playoffs. That second scenario seems like the most likely one.
The Packers have already secured their postseason spot. It’s unnecessary to risk aggravating their star cornerback’s injury with two weeks until playoff football. Green Bay’s defense is significantly better with No. 23 on the field, and they would prefer being the seventh seed with Alexander available over being the sixth seed without him.
Of course, the Packers want to win their remaining games. They will give their best effort, but they’re not preoccupied with choosing their playoff opponent.
It’s natural for fans to debate which playoff opponent they’d rather avoid. It sparks conversation and boosts social media engagement. However, that’s not how it works in the league. Organizations focus on two priorities: making the playoffs and securing the top seed. Beyond that, they don’t waste time strategizing to avoid specific scenarios.
I mentioned this Brazilian soccer saying in an article for Zone Coverage before, and I’ll say it again: “Time que quer ser campeão não escolhe adversário,” meaning, “A team that wants to be champion doesn’t choose its opponents.” Green Bay must be willing to go through anyone, anywhere, to win in the playoffs. That’s the mentality of winning organizations. “I would rather play X than Y” is a mediocre mindset and doesn’t align with the legacy of a 13-time world champion in any sport.
