The NFL Scouting Combine might officially be about the draft, but it’s also a gold mine for free-agency news — and it totally isn’t a front for tampering. We learned a lot from official sources about the Green Bay Packers’ hopes and plans for the upcoming draft, but we also got a few tidbits of less official news.
The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Tom Silverstein reported last week that the Packers are meeting with Aaron Jones‘ agent to reduce the star running back’s cap number. Reasonable, considering Jones’ cap number and the mutual interest from both sides to keep him in Green Bay. Silverstein’s report also contained a somewhat surprising nugget for the running back position: The Packers aren’t likely to re-sign Jones’ running mate, AJ Dillon.
Dillon’s status was always worth monitoring in 2023. His 2022 season was a downgrade from his solid 2021. Last year, Dillon had ups and downs as the team’s featured running back. Although his season mostly improved over time, he spent the last handful of games on the sideline thanks to a stinger injury. If Dillon’s time in Green Bay is over, where do the Packers look for their next RB2?
After being drafted in the second round in 2020, Dillon showed some flashes of greatness behind Jones. In 2020, he broke out against the Tennessee Titans in a showstopper performance. He showed the type of big-bodied, downhill running the Packers desired for the late-season cold. Dillon followed that up with a good sophomore season, averaging 4.3 yards per carry, rushing for over 1,000 yards, and doing good work in the passing game.
It seemed like Green Bay had a top-of-the-league running-back tandem. But Dillon regressed in 2022, putting up lower numbers in almost every category. Last year was unfortunately similar. With Jones missing a good chunk of the early season, Dillon was the team’s RB1 and didn’t find much footing until midseason. The offensive line’s poor run-blocking didn’t help, but Dillon didn’t show much explosion either. He finished the 2023 season with 3.4 yards per carry, 613 rushing yards, two rushing TDs, and 223 more receiving yards.
The league doesn’t like to pay running backs, and the Packers are already trying to get their older, more explosive back on a more reasonable cap number. Dillon seems absolutely delightful as a personality and locker room presence, but it appears the team will look elsewhere for a No. 2 back.
Of course, there’s no guarantee the team will have their RB1 back, either. But even with some complications, I’m optimistic Jones will return.
Assuming Jones is back, that would leave Emanuel Wilson as the current RB2. Wilson showed some nice things and was a preseason star, but he’s far from a roster lock entering 2024. Patrick Taylor is another back the Packers have a high opinion of, and they brought him back for a second stint late in the 2023 season. However, he’s best as a special teamer and blocker.
Gutekunst told the assembled media members at the combine he would like to have a “bigger” back on the roster. “I do think we would always like to have one power, bigger back on the roster for short-yardage situations and playing in the weather and closing out games,” he said.
If releasing Dillon and getting a similar type of back on the roster is a priority, that means either looking to free agency or the draft for a replacement.
Free agency could have some interesting options if the Packers are willing to pay. If the Packers want to get a big name, Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard, Josh Jacobs, and Derrick Henry are free agents. Some are better fits than others, and most of these guys have some mileage. But Green Bay could go wild and set Jordan Love up with a star-studded backfield while the receiving corps is still cheap.
Gutekunst hinted that the team could be in the mix in free agency, thanks to the increased cap and a few cap-saving moves they already made. But I’m not sure running back is the market they’ll explore.
Green Bay could also look at cheaper veteran options. But at that point, why not just re-sign Dillon, whose value Spotrac suggested is around a one-year, $3.5 million deal similar to the one Ezekiel Elliott signed last off-season?
Gutekunst will likely look to the draft for Dillon’s replacement, trying to find a more explosive, big-bodied back on a cheap rookie deal. This year’s class doesn’t appear to have a true do-it-all back, but it features plenty of intriguing role players. The Packers could find their Dillon replacement in the middle rounds this year and search for a Jones replacement next season.
If Dillon’s time in Green Bay is over, he’ll be remembered for his big personality, big quads, and big performances early in his career. Running back is generally one of the easier positions to find replacements for, so the Packers will have options regardless of what route they’d like to take. But it will be hard to replace Dillon’s legacy as a member of the Green Bay community.
