After three years in the incubator as Schrödinger’s quarterback, Jordan Love has finally answered the essential question. He’s good. Slowly but surely, the mainstream media is catching on to the narrative that the Green Bay Packers have done it again. We don’t know whether he’ll reach the heights of Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers, but it’s much easier for us to parrot the hyperbolic slogan “three for three.”
Love’s performance in what was essentially an elimination game on New Year’s Eve was his best yet. Love went on the road against a top-10 defense and threw for 256 yards and three touchdowns. Joe Barry’s unit finally showed up to play as well, which made it a rout. Leading the league’s youngest offense (and team), it’s been far from an easy environment for Love to stack up wins and other key statistics. Perhaps the best example is that rookie receivers generated 224 of Love’s passing yards (87.5%). But now he’s reached the point where he is playing at a consistently high level, at least down the stretch, and that merits a long-term extension.
The praise for general manager Brian Gutekunst’s patient, contrarian process should be as loud as the horrified criticism that’s echoed throughout the state of Wisconsin for the past three years. In a league that has increasingly thrown young quarterbacks into live action within a year of drafting them, Gutekunst and Green Bay’s brass stuck to organizational tradition. Given the extent to which Love’s physical talent was uniquely raw, it might have been the perfect decision for him. However, therein lies the trade-off, which has sent the league in the other direction.
Because of how long he sat, the Packers had a significant financial decision to make this last offseason about Love’s fifth-year option. Gutekunst ended up hedging with a one-year deal with less guaranteed money but a higher incentive ceiling. Now a long-term extension will land Love near the top of the market this summer. A good quarterback on a rookie contract is a massive team-building advantage; it allows teams to spend more aggressively on other position groups. The San Francisco 49ers are the best current example, with the $800K man Brock Purdy clearing the way for the team to roster Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Javon Hargrave, Charvarius Ward, and a handful of other talented players.
On Sunday, the Chicago Bears will enter Lambeau desperate to do what their fellow division rival in Detroit did last season: End Green Bay’s season in a “win and in” game on their own turf. After an offseason full of optimism and bold declarations, Jordan Love waxed the Bears at Soldier Field to begin the season. Having obtained the first-overall pick this spring, Chicago will now decide whether to move forward with Justin Fields or reset the timeline with perhaps an even bigger talent in USC’s Caleb Williams. Other QBs, notably North Carolina’s Drake Maye, will be in the mix at No. 1.
Going on the road to avenge Week 1 would be the most black-and-white testament to Fields’ continued growth throughout the season, but there are already a handful of other indicators in that direction. It feels as if the locker room and the fanbase have grown too attached to Fields for the front office to make the logical choice. Regardless, there’s no doubt that they stand to benefit significantly from the asset they hold at the top of the draft. If they play their cards well, one way or the other, they’ll be quite the contender in the NFC North next to the Packers and Detroit Lions. The Minnesota Vikings appear to be in no man’s land for the time being.
Expect Love to earn an AAV between $48 and $51 million. Joe Burrow ($55 million) and Justin Herbert ($52.5 million) already set the top of the market last summer, but Love will likely come in just below that. However, he will clear the $40 million AAV that the New York Giants gave Daniel Jones last offseason. Love has shown much more upside with a similar offensive setup, which will probably be enough. Given the multi-year investment the Packers have made in him, he also has significant leverage.
In terms of duration, four years sounds like the most palatable number for both sides, which would land the total value of his contract between $192 and $204 million. That sounds aggressive and egregious, and it certainly sounds too soon for such a large number. But that’s the cost of high-quality play at the NFL’s most important position. It’s also the cost of continuing the rebuild and future that is off to such a promising start.
The fact that Joe Flacco has come off his couch and thoroughly out-played more than half the league has been a massive indictment of the state of quarterback play league-wide. Injuries haven’t helped with that. But we’ve seen Kenny Pickett, Easton Stick, Aidan O’Connell, Jaren Hall, Nick Mullens, Tommy DeVito, Zach Wilson, and Derek Carr on primetime. It’s easy to see how Packers fans could take elite QB play for granted, but it’s hard to imagine having nearly as much fun as we have in the past few decades with a revolving door under center. Jordan Love is the future, and a well-defined cost for that will arrive a bit earlier than expected.
