Matt LaFleur and the Green Bay Packers survived two games with Malik Willis under center thanks to complementary football and a masterful game plan. They defeated their two AFC South opponents, but the Packers will face their toughest test against the undefeated Minnesota Vikings.
Minnesota is looking like the most complete team in the NFC at this point in the season. Sam Darnold is exceeding expectations and playing high-level football in Kevin O’Connell‘s system, while Brian Flores remains one of the best defensive coordinators in the league.
As of this writing, it’s still unclear whether the Packers will have Jordan Love available for this divisional tilt. LaFleur has been a wizard as a playcaller this season, but he’ll face his toughest test against Flores’ defense. Who will prevail between these two skilled coordinators?
It’s a running gag in the Packer fandom that LaFleur can never seem to get his flowers nationally. In his first few seasons, he “wasn’t Coach of the Year material,” thanks to having Aaron Rodgers. Last season, he led the league’s youngest team to a playoff victory, but it still wasn’t enough.
However, he’s helped turn Willis, a quarterback the league was pretty much done with, into a 2-0 starter thanks to a game plan that exploited opposing defenses, played to Willis’ strengths, and didn’t ask him to be a hero. That alone should earn him more kudos, but even in Week 1’s loss, his attack plan was just as good. Unfortunately, the players didn’t execute it as well.
Still, both of Willis’ opponents had clear, exploitable flaws LaFleur could take advantage of.
The Chicago Bears gashed Indianapolis Colts with the run in Week 1, so LaFleur dialed up a creative rushing attack involving multiple players to take advantage. The result was an old-school, run-first attack uncharacteristic of Green Bay’s usual MO. The Tennessee Titans’ defense was stouter against interior runs. While it took the offense a bit to move away from attacking that area, they exploited the edges and let Willis use his legs to put up 73 rushing yards on six attempts.
Flores’ defense won’t be as easy to exploit.
Minnesota’s defense is third by DVOA, third in yards per carry against the run, sixth in opponent passer rating, fifth in sack percentage, and fifth in interception percentage. Flores is a master at disguising his scheme and getting the most from his players. It’s a well-rounded unit capable of beating opponents regardless of whether they want to attack by pass or run.
They’ve done this against two good teams — and the New York Giants. Even with a few injured players, the San Francisco 49ers have assembled the Avengers as skill position players, while the Houston Texans had one of the most hyped-up offenses heading into the season.
LaFleur and Flores each had one win in their battles last season.
In the first matchup, Flores ate LaFleur’s lunch by terrorizing Love. In the 10-24 loss, Love completed just 24 of his 41 passes for 229 yards, one touchdown, and one interception for a 72.1 passer rating. He was sacked four times and struggled to escape Flores’ pressure.
Yet the script flipped in Minnesota on New Year’s Eve. Love was a demon in Green Bay’s 33-10 victory, countering Flores’ blitz attempts and completing 24 of his 33 passes for three touchdowns and a 125.3 passer rating while adding a rushing touchdown.
Sunday’s game will allow one of these talented coordinators to pull ahead and take the lead in the NFC North.
Which quarterback plays will play a major factor. Love and Willis have different strengths. Despite how well Willis has played, the Packers want their franchise quarterback out there when possible. Love won’t have the same running ability Willis does, especially after recovering from his injury. Still, he can open the passing offense up more and utilize the team’s host of weapons.
Flores is in the position of needing to prepare against both.
“Obviously, they propose different issues for different reasons,” Flores said on the challenge. “But without overloading the players, you want to at least give them enough to prepare for where it’s if it’s one, we’ve got to do this, and if it’s the other, we need to do this again without overloading them. So that’s really the challenge today, and that’s really where our conversations are now. How do we prepare for both quarterbacks without, you know, having 60 calls here?”
He’ll need to find a way to play to each quarterback’s strengths on LaFleur’s side. If Willis is the starter, he’ll need to open the playbook more, thanks to Minnesota’s stout run defense. If Love is under center, he’ll need to protect the recovering quarterback well and help him take advantage of matchups like Stephon Gilmore, who Love tormented in the playoffs last season.
Thankfully, Green Bay’s offensive line offers a nice edge. The Packers’ O-line is the second-best team in pass-blocking efficiency and has only allowed 13 pressures. However, a major key will be to limit penalties, where the offensive line has cost the team some opportunities.
There’s a lot of respect between Flores and LaFleur, and this chess match between the two brilliant minds will be one of the NFL’s most exciting stories in Week 4. Minnesota is exceeding preseason narratives thanks to playing well in all three phases, and the Packers find ways to win even down their star quarterback. The entire matchup will be fascinating, but LaFleur versus Flores might be the most tantalizing bit.
