Fans and pundits can spin up as many mock drafts as they like, but until free agency happens, the mock drafts are mostly guesswork. With the start of free agency last week, the Green Bay Packers provided some clarity on their draft strategy.
The Packers came out hot on the first day of free agency. They landed a couple of big-time free agents in former New York Giants safety Xavier McKinney and former Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs.
But it also came with some tough goodbyes when they released Aaron Jones and David Bakhtiari. Jones signed with the rival Minnesota Vikings, and Bahktiari remains a free agent.
Below is a good summary of all of the moves so far:
The Packers lost De’Vondre Campbell, a key starter in their linebacking core, and Jon Runyan Jr., a solid starting guard. Green Bay also lost a pair of safeties. Darnell Savage signed in Jacksonville, and Jonathan Owens will play for the Chicago Bears next year.
I expect the Packers to bring back Rudy Ford. Along with Anthony Johnson Jr. and the newly signed McKinney, Green Bay’s safety room got much better and thinner. McKinney is an incredible player who will be a leader on the backend for years to come. Signing the former Alabama safety drives down the Packers’ need to find a safety high in the draft. This year’s class did not have the type of player that new Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley wanted, but he liked McKinney.
The Packers also upgraded at running back. But, unlike safety, I don’t think Green Bay’s draft strategy changes that much.
I thought the Packers would target a running back in the mid-rounds, and that plan is still on the table. I don’t expect A.J. Dillon back in Green Bay, either. This running back class is better suited to a team trying to find a more dynamic guy to pair with Jacobs instead of a bigger partner to pair with Jones. Yes, that means that the Braelon Allen to Green Bay dream is probably dead. However, there are more options for the Packers that make more sense in this class after they replaced Jones with Jacobs.
That leaves the offensive line. With two starters departing to other teams, the Packers have some work to do in the trenches. Green Bay’s offensive line depth is now untenably thin. No one wants the Packers to rely on Royce Newman or Sean Rhyan to play most of the snaps.
There’s a significant chance the Packers will take an offensive lineman with their top pick. Whether it’s Zach Frazier, Graham Barton, or Troy Fautanu, Green Bay will probably take a lineman on Day 1.
If the value is there in the second round, it would not surprise me if the Packers double-dip at the position. Zach Tom at right tackle and Elgton Jenkins at left guard are the only two real locks on the roster. Rasheed Walker has been good, but I need to see him for an extended period before I’m ready to consider him Bakhtiari’s successor.
Josh Myers has yet to inspire confidence as the long-term answer at center, and the right guard spot is still uncertain. It’s important to provide a solid unit in front of Jordan Love and newly signed running back Jacobs. If the Packers want impact offensive linemen, they’ll have to draft them early.
The Packers saw the strength in this draft class in offensive linemen and running backs but the lack of the safety they wanted. So, they went out in free agency and addressed a need they couldn’t through the draft. Green Bay’s draft strategy just became a little bit clearer.
All stats and data via ESPN, PFF, and CBS unless otherwise noted.
