The Green Bay Packers head to Soldier Field in Week 11 to face the Chicago Bears in the first matchup of the Caleb Williams era.
Green Bay enters this game fresh off its bye week, while Chicago is reeling from a 19-3 home loss to the New England Patriots. The Bears have gone back-to-back games without a touchdown and are now on a 23-drive streak without reaching the end zone.
Williams has averaged only 4.9 yards per attempt in his last three games, with only 32 net passing yards against New England. The Patriots sacked him nine times, and opponents have sacked him 21 times over the last four games. Furthermore, Chicago’s O-line ranks 23rd in pass-blocking efficiency. Williams has been holding the ball too long, largely due to his hesitation to throw unless his target has at least five yards of separation.
The Packers will likely mix coverages and looks to get Williams off his game. However, their primary plan should be playing sticky man coverage this week.
Green Bay has been inconsistent with zone coverage, allowing a 93.8 passer rating when targeting their linebackers, cornerbacks, and safeties combined. In contrast, they’ve given up a 61.1 passer rating in man coverage. Additionally, while playing man, the defense has missed only three tackles but has missed 23 while in zone coverage.
In recent memory, the Packers have struggled to play zone between the numbers. Receivers often have enough time to run their routes, get set between zones, call family and friends, ponder life’s great mysteries, and then catch the ball.
There’s no need to make life easy for Chicago’s offense. It’s in Green Bay’s best interest to have Quay Walker and Isaiah McDuffie locked onto a target before the play rather than allowing them to drop back while trying to guess it. Walker and McDuffie have man coverage grades of 68.4 and 71.4, respectively, but their zone coverage grades are much lower, at 37.8 and 53.1.
No Bears receiver has a receiving grade of 67.1 or higher against man coverage. Williams has a passer rating of just 54.9 when targeting D.J. Moore in man coverage, compared to 87.7 on zone plays.
The Patriots created a blueprint to make Williams uncomfortable. In Week 9, they led the league with 27 Cover 1 snaps. They held Williams to his second-lowest yards per attempt and second-lowest passing yards of the season.
New England capitalized on Chicago’s uninspiring offense. On a red-zone play, they used Brenden Schooler as a robber on third down. With no one open, Williams scrambled to the right, but Schooler followed and delivered a hit.
Edgerrin Cooper and Evan Williams are two candidates for the spy role on Williams. However, I’d prefer to have Williams as the post safety and Cooper near the line of scrimmage as a robber. Williams is PFF’s highest-graded rookie safety and the eighth-highest-graded in coverage.
Moreover, Matt LaFleur is optimistic that Jaire Alexander will return on Sunday. His presence would allow Green Bay to implement a similar Cover 1 plan to the one New England used against Williams. Additionally, the Packers could follow Bill Belichick’s old strategy: have CB1 Jaire Alexander shadow either Moore or Keenan Allen one-on-one, leaving Stokes with safety help on the second-option receiver.
The matchup between Jeff Hafley and Thomas Brown is a significant advantage for Green Bay. With a healthy Jaire Alexander, the Packers should have no trouble shutting down a Bears offense that hasn’t scored a passing touchdown since October 13.
