Jaire Alexander had a tough 2023 season. He missed 10 games due to shoulder and back injuries and had his worst PFF defensive grade since 2018. Additionally, he faced disciplinary issues, including the coin-toss controversy in Carolina, which led to the Packers suspending him for one game.
Jeff Hafley has a proven track record of coaching defensive backs at a high level, transforming Jeff Okudah into a top-three pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Hafley’s scheme and playing style are the complete opposite of what Green Bay ran under Joe Barry. His new approach will benefit Alexander’s strengths.
Hafley’s scheme will allow Alexander to be more physical at the line of scrimmage. Hafley believes that pressing is the best way to disrupt the timing between quarterback and receiver and eliminate the route tree.
When healthy, Alexander is a top-five cornerback in the NFL. He played at least 15 games in 2019, 2020, and 2022, with an average PFF coverage grade of 83.4 and an 81.2 overall defensive grade in those seasons.
When you combine Alexander’s talent with Hafley’s coaching, there’s reason to believe that Alexander could compete for the Defensive Player of the Year award. However, it’s not going to be an easy task. Since 2009, only three defensive backs have claimed the award, most recently with Stephon Gilmore in 2019.
Alongside Gilmore, Charles Woodson and Troy Polamalu earned the Defensive Player of the Year award in 2009 and 2010, respectively. Gilmore, Woodson, and Polamalu allowed a combined six touchdowns while snagging 22 interceptions and making 24 pass breakups.
Furthermore, they held opposing quarterbacks to a below-average passer rating of 46.1 and a completion percentage of just 54.2 when throwing their way.
According to DraftKings, Alexander has a 0.4% chance to win Defensive Player of the Year in 2024. Several other cornerbacks, including Sauce Gardner, Jaylon Johnson, Patrick Surtain, Jalen Ramsey, Devon Witherspoon, Christian Gonzalez, and L’Jarius Sneed have better odds than Alexander.
Jaire will have plenty of opportunities to make his case for the award. Green Bay’s defense will face some of the best receivers in the league in 2024. They will go head-to-head with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith in Week 1 in Brazil. Alexander will see Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Keenan Allen, and D.J. Moore twice.
Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Nico Collins, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Chris Olave are also coming to town, and Green Bay will face Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Marvin Harrison Jr. on the road.
Alexander enters the 2024 season with 14 touchdowns allowed, 10 interceptions, 47 pass breakups, and a passer rating of 84.7 when targeted. He would need to achieve at least half of his career interceptions in one year to have a realistic chance of winning. Of the last three cornerbacks to win the award, Stephon Gilmore had the fewest interceptions with six.
Alexander has allowed at least two touchdowns in every year of his career, so it will be crucial for him to reduce this number. Although Charles Woodson allowed five touchdowns in 2009, he compensated with nine interceptions. Additionally, Alexander had 13 pass breakups in two of his three best seasons in terms of PFF coverage grade. Under Hafley’s new scheme, he will play closer to the receiver, providing more opportunities to attack the ball.
Despite run defense not being a primary focus for cornerbacks, Alexander will need to improve his performance against rushing attacks to enhance his bid for the award. His best run defense grade came in 2021 at 76.4, but this was over just 83 total run defense snaps. In contrast, his run defense grade in 2023 was a below-average 57.7. Cleaning up this aspect of his game will be essential for Alexander, as a well-rounded defensive performance will strengthen his case.
Alexander has the talent to contend for the prize. He is the best cornerback in the NFC North and was a top-four corner in interceptions in 2022. If he can stay healthy, he will be the MVP of Green Bay’s defense in 2024.
