On the January 8, 1995, episode of The Simpsons, Lisa pleads with Homer by asking, “Don’t you see? Getting what you want all the time will ultimately leave you unfulfilled and joyless.” Homer responds simply by saying, “Remove the girl,” prompting Bart to pull Lisa out of frame.
Minnesota Timberwolves fans would probably have the same response when the national media pokes holes in Anthony Edwards’ success as he leads the Wolves to first place in the West. These holes are rarely as they seem, prompting Wolves fans to respond in the same way as Homer. Edwards’ lack of playmaking is one weakness that national pundits often highlight. Upon further inspection, though, Edwards is becoming one of the league’s best passing shooting guards.
Edwards is sporting a career-high in assists at 5.0 per game. Raw assist numbers can be flawed, though. Players who have better teammates or play in a good offensive system tend to lead the league in assists. We can look at Edwards’ advanced playmaking statistics to see how big of a leap Edwards has made. Edwards currently has a 23.1% assist percentage, which measures the percentage of his teammates’ made shots he generated as the ball handler. Edwards has increased that number every season. For context, Steph Curry is at 23.5%, and Jimmy Butler is at 20.8%.
Assist percentage is helpful because it measures a player’s ability to find open teammates while he is on the floor. The metric still relies somewhat on the ability of the player’s supporting cast to hit those shots. But coupled with his assists per game, it begins to illustrate Edwards’ ability to see teammates when they are open. The game is starting to slow down for Edwards.
Edwards’ assist ratio, or the percentage of a team’s possessions a player assists on based off field goal attempts, turnovers, and assists, is also at a career-high of 16.5. That means Edwards assists on 16.5% of plays when he is on the floor. Edwards is not a point guard, so comparing him to other high-volume scorers is important. Curry is at 16.8%, and Jason Tatum is at 15.2%, indicating that Edwards is already among the league’s elite. Edwards has improved his ability to see open teammates when opponents double-team him, or he’s playing ISO ball.
The most encouraging aspect is that Edwards is doing it at age 22. His ability to find teammates at the same clip as Curry, even though he’s 13 years younger, is underappreciated. However, it’s important to distinguish how abnormal it is for a non-point guard to show this type of improvement early in his career.
We can fully appreciate his leap by comparing Edwards to some of the best scoring guards in their fourth season.
Edwards:
- 5.0 Assists per game
- 23.1% assist percentage
- 16.5 assist ratio
Jayson Tatum (2020-21):
- 4.3 assisted per game
- 19.6% assist percentage
- 14.5 assist ratio
Devin Booker (2018-19):
- 6.8 assists per game
- 32.7% assist percentage
- 20.2 assist ratio
James Harden (2012-13):
- 5.8 assists per game
- 25.7% assist percentage
- 18.7 assist ratio
Kobe Bryant (1999-00):
- 5.0 assists per game
- 21.5% assist percentage
- 17.4 assist ratio
Michael Jordan (1987-88):
- 5.9 assists per game
- 27% assist percentage
- No tracked assist ratio
At worst, the comparison above suggests that Edwards is nestled somewhere between Tatum and Booker in his development as a playmaker. At best, you could say he is between Kobe and Jordan. Either way, he’s putting up similar numbers to All-Starr starting shooting guards past and present.
The eye test also confirms this. Edwards’ playmaking chemistry with Rudy Gobert has meaningfully improved from last season. Gobert receives 11% of Edwards’ total assists, and Gobert is converting 57.8% of his shots from Edwards’ passes.
In the last ten games, Gobert has made 72.7% of his field goals when Edwards passes him the ball. That’s mainly due to Edwards’ ability to find Gobert when running the pick-and-roll. Edwards appears to be learning to make decisions based on help defense and scheme.
Below is an example of Edwards finding Gobert on the roll, a clear sign of their chemistry. Interestingly, Edwards also might have noticed Xavier Tillman and Luke Kennard hesitated to help on the roll, allowing for an easy alley-oop.
Gobert alone hasn’t benefitted from Edwards’ growth in court vision. Jaden McDaniels is shooting 65.5% from the field and 53.6% from three off of Edwards’ passes. McDaniels has become Edwards’ go-to target in the corner when running pick-and-rolls.
We can see Edwards’ trust in McDaniels below. Edwards takes the screen, and the Memphis Grizzlies double-team him. As Gobert rolls the basket, Luke Kennard hedges hard to the basket to cut off the easy dunk, or at least foul Gobert.
While facing the opposite direction, Edwards recognizes the double and sees Kennard hedging, prompting him to make an off-balance jump pass to McDaniels, who drills the corner three. Edwards processes and recognizes all that in under two seconds of game time. Gobert’s lob in the first clip may have set up this opportunity.
Edwards’ improvement may have happened through osmosis. Minnesota’s front office has surrounded Edwards with proven playmakers. That list includes Ricky Rubio, D’Angelo Russell, Patrick Beverley, Austin Rivers, Mike Conley, and Kyle Anderson, and it’s easy to see how they may influence his development.
Perhaps Edwards’ leap in improved playmaking and vision should be expected with how he compares to the league’s elite guards, past and present. The game is probably slowing down for him. Regardless of the reasons, Edwards’ increase in playmaking, coupled with Minnesota’s “flow” on offense, should lead to even more improvement in the second half of the season. It appears that Wolves fans are getting everything they wanted in Anthony Edwards. Contrary to Lisa Simpson’s belief, Wolves fans seem fulfilled and joyous.
