The Minnesota Timberwolves stood alone at the top of the Western Conference after a massive win over the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday. Led by Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels, Minnesota’s defense only gave up 101 points to the Thunder, who have had a top-5 offense for much of the season. We have come to be able to expect these kinds of lock-down defensive performances from the Wolves, who have maintained the league’s best defensive rating by a wide margin for much of the season.
Minnesota’s roster is full of tough and active defenders. But it could use another scorer off the bench to ignite them in some of their quarter-long scoring droughts. The Wolves have shot the ball well, with a 59.8% true shooting percentage, seventh in the NBA. Still, they remain a below-average offense, ranking 19th with a 114.2 offensive rating.
The February 8 trade deadline is just over a week away, and Minnesota’s front office must decide how soon they want to round out their roster, knowing they have championship expectations. Therefore, we will likely see the Wolves move to acquire a player who could give them an offensive boost. They can either make a trade before February 8 or try to sign a player off the buyout market shortly after.
Minnesota would probably love to trade for a specific player. But they don’t have much draft capital to work with, and most of their non-essential players are either prospects or players without a lot of open-market value. Therefore, Brian Windhorst hypothesized that “the Wolves are likely to stand pat” and that “Minnesota may be more involved in the buyout market with an open roster spot and about $2 million in room below tax.”
The buyout market typically consists of aging veteran players who other teams cut near the trade deadline. The league mandates that rosters must be finalized for playoffs by March 1. Veterans on young or struggling teams often ask their GM to buy them out, allowing them to play for a contender. However, teams only tend to agree to a buyout if they cannot first get something in return for that player in a trade or if they need to duck the salary cap. Therefore, the quality of players in the buyout market is variable. The Miami Heat’s signing of Kevin Love was among the few successful recent buyout signings.
However, there are a few players on the buyout market that could potentially help the Wolves. On Tuesday, Darren “Doogie” Wolfson reported that someone told him that the Wolves “really like Doug McDermott.” McDermott makes a lot of sense for the Timberwolves. He’s a great shooter who has a career 41.3% shooting percentage. He’s also shooting nearly 45% from distance this season. The Wolves could use an extra player in their rotation who can space the floor, especially in their bench units, and that’s Dougie McBuckets’ specialty.
McDermott, 32, is not a great defender and is slower than he was in his prime. However, that shouldn’t be a problem for the Timberwolves. They have enough defensive talent to insulate a below-average defender in most rotations. Additionally, McDermott has good size for a small forward. He stands at 6’6.25” without shoes and has a 6’9.25” wingspan. That should allow McDermott to cover enough space to fit into some of Minnesota’s zone defense concepts and complement the already tall and rangy roster.
Wolfson theorized that it would be difficult for the Wolves to trade for McDermott because he’s making $13.75 million in the final year of his contract.
If it’s McDermott, I think it’s more a buyout. I don’t think they’re trading for Doug McDermott, I guess I would be surprised. I mean I don’t know how they get to that money, you would need Kyle Anderson’s contact in all likelihood. Chris Finch doesn’t want to move Kyle Anderson…. I just don’t know how you would get to the money, they’re $2 and a half [million] below the luxury line so we’re looking at close to dollar for dollar.
In addition to all the challenges Doogie mentioned, it may be impractical to move a second-round draft pick or prospects for a player who may leave in free agency next year. McDermott may only be a 15-minute-a-night rotation player, and he easily could fall out of Minnesota’s lineup in the postseason. Opponents will actively hunt opportunities to switch their best offensive players onto your worst defenders in the playoffs through pick-and-rolls.
That’s part of what would make McDermott so attractive as a free agent if the Spurs buy him out. Although there is no guarantee he would sign in Minnesota if he hits free agency, there would be a lot less risk involved for the Wolves if they wait out and hope he signs with them than offering assets for a player who might not hit. Suppose they sign McDermott to a veteran minimum contract or something close to it. That could be of meaningful value to a team just below the salary cap and will likely face paying the luxury tax for the next several years.
The Wolves are in first place in the Western Conference and have been for much of the season. While it feels weird to say this, it seems likely that a veteran in the buyout market could see joining the Wolves as a legitimate opportunity to win a ring. If nothing else, they would have to see it as a chance to play on a playoff team and potentially earn a bigger contract if they can perform well. Additionally, ESPN’s Bobby Marks highlighted that as a part of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, teams over the salary cap cannot sign a player waived during the regular season who had a pre-existing salary of over $12.4 million.”
That new CBA rule considerably decreases Minnesota’s competition in the buyout market for certain players because five of the teams Marks listed are title contenders. Even if McDermott wanted to sign with the defending champion Denver Nuggets, he couldn’t because his current contract is over $12.4 million, and the Nuggets are over the cap. Of course, that doesn’t stop a player from choosing to sign in a glamor market. Therefore, if the Wolves attempt the buyout strategy, they’ll have to leave their options open if the player they are targeting decides to sign elsewhere.
Alec Burks could realistically end up on the buyout market this year. At 6’6″, he’s another bench bucket-getter with some size. Burks is an excellent outside shooter who’s averaged over 40% from distance for the last four seasons. Burks can also heat up and occasionally carry a larger part of the team’s scoring load. He has scored over 20 points in five games this season. In two of those games, Burks scored over 30 points. Like McDermott, Burks is an aging veteran on a young team at the bottom of the league. But he’s still good enough to help a contending team now, and the Detroit Pistons could buy him out.
As we get closer to the trade deadline, we will get more information about which players will be available on the buyout market, and who interests the Timberwolves. However, it feels good to say that the Wolves have a legitimate chance to sign one of the best players on the buyout market because they are a contending team.
