The modern NBA landscape is full of trades and pick swaps. The Indiana Pacers’ recent acquisition of Pascal Siakam in exchange for Bruce Brown, Jordan Nwora, and three first-round picks earlier this week is just one of several multi-first-round pick deals. People don’t always look upon these deals fondly. For example, people met the Minnesota Timberwolves’ Rudy Gobert trade in July 2022 with much negative noise.
Minnesota hasn’t only gotten early value out of the trade but has also found avenues for future value. It all boils down to win shares. Specifically, win shares per 48 minutes (WS/48).
As many fans remember, the Wolves sent four first-round picks, Malik Beasley, Patrick Beverley, Walker Kessler, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Leandro Bolmaro, to the Utah Jazz for Gobert. Additionally, the Wolves swapped another first-round pick for the Jazz’s first-round pick in 2026.
That trade found new life following the Mike Conley trade in Feb. 2023:
- The Wolves sent D’Angelo Russell to the Los Angeles Lakers.
- Utah sent Mike Conley, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, two second-round picks to Minnesota, and Vanderbilt and Beasley to Los Angeles.
- The Lakers sent Juan Toscano-Anderson, Damian Jones, Russell Westbrook, and a first-round pick to Utah, and a second-round pick to Minnesota.
Trades are an inherently risky proposition. They’re about value, but sometimes it’s hard to see it immediately. Teams make deals and hope they get what they want from the trade amidst uncertainty. Using WS/48 can eliminate much of the cloudiness surrounding the trade.
WS/48 attempts to quantify how many games a player contributes to their team per 48 minutes of play. It may be an imperfect way to view basketball. But at least it provides a single number to compare players and picks.
No one knows who the Jazz will draft with the picks the Wolves sent them obtained. GM Danny Ainge could draft a player like Jared Sullinger or someone like Robert Williams. The only certainty with those picks is that he selected Keyonte George in June using the first of Minnesota’s future first-rounders.
First-round picks since 2008 have produced an average of 0.075 WS/48 in their whole careers. Picks 21-30 produce just under 0.07.
For added visuals, here’s a graph depicting the WS/48 of each first-round pick since 2008, grouped by their draft number in their corresponding draft. Curiously, first-overall picks are not much more valuable than 30th overall.
The Atlanta Hawks took Kobe Bufkin at pick 15 last year, and he’s the outlier with a WS/48 of well below -0.4. For the sake of continuity, I’ve used Bufkin and other recent draftees in the chart below despite the possibility that they have a small career size sample:
Using these numbers, the five picks the Wolves sent to Utah have a total expected value of 0.35 WS/48. That assumes Minnesota will win enough games in the ensuing seasons so that their picks would only fall at or after 21 – an arbitrary number, but one that is supposed to represent the “late” round.
The Jazz will unlikely draft players that add up to that amount. The value that a late first-rounder provides varies greatly.
For example, the Memphis Grizzlies drafted Tony Wroten 25th overall in 2012, and he produced -0.021 WS/48 in his career. On the other hand, the Jazz drafted Gobert 27th in 2013, and he has one of the best WS/48 of any late first-rounder in the data set (0.22).
Late-round picks produce a wide range of win shares. Utah has three more opportunities (four including the pick swap) to find a star the Wolves could’ve had. Although he’s still just a rookie, George has produced 0.019 WS/48 this season. His future could be bright, but we can’t be sure yet.
Gobert is producing 0.195 this season after consistently being in the mid-0.2s in Utah. He’s a star now, anchoring the best defense in the league. What’s more valuable, 0.2 WS/48 right now or an expected 0.35 WS/48 in what could amount to a decade of waiting? It’s a somewhat unanswerable question, or at least it can only answer itself.
Fortunately for Minnesota, it’s a question that became much easier to answer last February.
Conley has held many roles in his long NBA career. He’s scored as many as 21.5 points per game with the Grizzlies. He also distributed 7.7 assists per game in 43 games for the Jazz in 2022. And he has developed into a 40+ percent three-point shooter in Minnesota. The 36-year-old has provided an astounding 0.186 WS/48 this season. It’s impossible to know when or how he’ll decline as he ages, but he’s supplied plenty of value for the Wolves as a clutch shooter and leader.
Alexander-Walker arrived in Minnesota with Conley in February and has also played a role in justifying the Gobert trade. His defensive ability and solid shooting percentages have constituted 0.09 WS/48 this season. He’s filled in nicely, considering Minnesota gave up rotational pieces in Vanderbilt, Beasley, and Beverley and a projected rotation piece in Kessler. He’s producing almost the same amount of WS/48 that Russell has provided the Lakers this season (0.094).
In addition to Conley and Alexander-Walker, the Wolves fetched three second-round picks. Their value has never been higher around the league. Tim Connelly has already turned one of them into Leonard Miller when he traded up with San Antonio to select him 33rd overall in June.
Second-round picks have produced an average of 0.031 WS/48. There’s plenty of value to be had with second-round picks. Second-rounders Nikola Jokić, Mitchell Robinson, and DeAndre Jordan have provided at least 0.17 WS/48 in their careers. Connelly can still unearth future talent without having first-round selections in 2025, 2027, and 2029.
As many trades involving one star for several picks go, time will only tell how each team will fare. Below is how the current trade has presently worked out for each team.
Wolves get:
- 0.198 WS/48 from Gobert
- 0.186 WS/48 from Conley
- 0.09 WS/48 from Alexander-Walker
- Leonard Miller
- 0.031 WS/48 from Utah’s 2025 second-round pick
- ~0.07 WS/48 from 2026 pick swap
Jazz get:
- Keyonte George
- Walker Kessler
- 0.35 WS/48 from Minnesota’s future first-rounders, including George
- ~0.07 WS/48 from a Lakers first-round pick
- ~0.07 WS/48 from 2026 pick swap
- Worth noting: Vanderbilt, Beasley, Beverley, and Bolmaro have all moved on from Utah
Minnesota won the trade in the short term. The 0.468 WS/48 that Gobert, Conley, and Alexander-Walker produce outweighs the 0.139 and 0.037 Kessler and George generated this season. The picks Minnesota gave up could be covered by future smart draft choices but also by current players.
The Wolves gave Naz Reid room to grow when they traded Vanderbilt. Jordan McLaughlin has gotten more playing time without Beverley ahead of him on the depth chart. Jaden McDaniels may have been able to increase his minutes from 25.8 to 30.6 per game from 2022 to 2023, thanks in part to Beasley’s absence.
While Minnesota may have overpaid for Gobert, that’s not the full story.
It’s no secret that many teams execute these sorts of trades to “win now.” The Wolves are winning now. The four other future first-rounders, and George and Kessler combined, may add up to more value via WS/48 than Gobert. It could also be said that acquiring Gobert was simply building a foundation that future first-round picks can’t lay down.
The Wolves have found pieces to build on that foundation. It’s not like the team’s current youth, combined with potential second-round value picks like Leonard Miller, can’t ensure prolonged success long after Gobert (and Conley) decline.
