The NBA trade deadline is Feb. 8. The next few weeks are a time for teams to help shape their futures, whether by unloading unhappy players or loading up on assets. Some teams, like the Toronto Raptors and New York Knicks, have already completed team-altering trades.
But the Minnesota Timberwolves shouldn’t join them.
The Wolves are not expected to engage in blockbuster trades like the one involving OG Anunoby and RJ Barrett. However, they could be active in swinging smaller deals.
It’s possible, if not likely, that Tim Connelly steers clear of any trades. Even ones involving second-round draft picks to pick up bench players.
There are three main reasons why he wouldn’t:
- Minnesota’s current issues, namely turnovers, are fixable.
- The Wolves have options in Iowa.
- Second-round picks are probably more valuable than any immediate return.
Minnesota’s offense is comparably weaker than their defense, but it isn’t a lost cause. Cutting down on turnovers alone will help the Wolves tap into their latent top-ten efficient scoring offense.
Unlocking Minnesota’s offense may start with increasing Mike Conley’s usage, improved decision-making from their stars in Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns, or a Jordan McLaughlin–infused bench.
Whatever change it takes to improve, Chris Finch will try to find it. He’s experimented with different bench players and rotations. McLaughlin didn’t earn consistent minutes until Dec. 26, but he’s a candidate to continue to earn bench minutes. Other players, like Troy Brown Jr., have provided solid three-point shooting when the Timberwolves have given him playing time. Shake Milton could still become the spark plug the Wolves expected him to be when they signed him.
But Finch may start by calling up someone from Iowa.
The Iowa Wolves have started the regular season 1-5 after going 6-10 in the Showcase Cup. However, they have intriguing players who could earn NBA minutes.
Wendell Moore Jr. has already played in 38 NBA games, including two starts, in his two seasons since being drafted in 2022. He could provide a defensive spark, especially at the point of attack.
An undrafted free agent in 2021 whom the Iowa Wolves signed before their 2022 season, D.J. Carton has parlayed shooting 44.8% from three with a reliable 7.0 assists and just 2.2 turnovers per game. He might not drive winning in the NBA, but the Wolves don’t need him to in order to make an impact.
Leonard Miller, the ever-exciting Canadian from June’s draft, looks like a future all-around player. He’s shooting 43.5% from three on a healthy 5.8 attempts per game. His ball-handling, size, and athleticism remain.
The Wolves could trade for guards like Ish Smith, Tre Jones, and Monte Morris to command the second unit. They could find another Nickeil Alexander-Walker, a former first-round prospect bouncing around the league and could thrive in Minnesota. Every trade comes with a cost, even if it’s just for a couple of future second-round picks.
Still, it may not be worth giving up any assets for a chance at finding a difference-maker.
The Wolves shouldn’t waste second-round picks. The average Win Shares per 48 minutes (WS/48) of a second-round draftee since 2008 is 0.0316. To contextualize that number, the same figure for first-rounders is 0.0746.
The figure above also assumes that a player drafted 60th overall has the same expectations as a player drafted 31st. Players drafted between 31st and 45th overall have a much higher WS/48 of 0.0438.
Some of them, like the most famous second-rounder ever, Nikola Jokić, produce elite numbers. Jokić has a career WS/48 of 0.251. Other elite players like Stephen Curry and James Harden are at 0.2 and 0.217, respectively.
Although he has just five NBA games under his belt, Leonard Miller has produced 0.234 WS/48, the second-highest of any second-rounder since 2008. While second-rounders haven’t increased in value via WS/48 (see below), GMs around the league have likened them to “the quarters of the NBA.”
Second-rounders are genuine currency. Teams that draft well can find legitimate talent in the second round. They can use them to sign prospects who will eventually develop into impact players now that so many teams cannot trade first-rounders due to the Stepien Rule. The Stepien Rule dictates that teams cannot trade first-round picks in back-to-back years, meaning teams must get creative with the draft capital they trade with. Thus, second-round picks have become the trendy way for teams to complete deals.
The Wolves don’t need to sacrifice their future, whether that be future second-round selections or future trades, to pick up fresh bench players. Their issues don’t necessitate a massive change of scenery. Should they seek something of the sort, the Iowa Wolves should be the first team they call, not a fellow NBA GM.
