The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit a perplexing offensive roadblock. They currently rank 19th in the NBA in offensive rating (113.6). They’ve scored enough to win games and maintain the 1st seed in the Western Conference, but it’s clear that there are areas they need to improve before they reach the playoffs if they hope to make a run.
Watching the games, the Timberwolves don’t exactly feel like a nearly bottom-10 offense in the league to me. Part of that is because they have two dynamic scorers, Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns, who can will their way to a good scoring night in most games. In years past, Minnesota’s offense has felt outmatched by the league’s elite teams. But this year Ant and KAT can keep the Wolves in the game on offense while their No. 1-ranked defense shuts opponents down.
More importantly, they don’t feel like a bottom-10 offense because the Wolves get a good shot most of the time when they don’t turn the ball over. Chris Finch commented on this phenomenon after Minnesota’s tight win over the Dallas Mavericks without Luka Doncic or Kyrie Irving.
When asked how the Wolves were able to find stability in the second half, Finch responded:
When we didn’t turn the ball over we shot the lights out. We were shooting 60% from the field, 70% from three at halftime, and had 15 turnovers…. We’re going places where there’s nowhere to go, and it’s on us, and they’re just bad decisions, and at that point in time we deserve to turn the ball over because they’re not smart plays. When we space and we make the extra pass, and we trust that [the ball] might come back to us then we’re good. We’re really good.
Finch was right in calling out turnovers as Minnesota’s main issue. It’s hard to win games when you have 15 turnovers in one half. If Luka had played, it’s likely that the Wolves would not have prevailed with such a slow start. Finch has been stressing the importance of taking care of the ball more lately. He also commented on it after Minnesota’s most recent win over the Lakers.
We shoot 50%, had 19 turnovers, and whenever we didn’t turn it over we got I thought really pretty decent looks. Sometimes the switching bothered us a little bit, but I thought we moved it really well. Just turnovers continue to plague us.
Turnovers have plagued the Timberwolves this year. Even though their record hasn’t reflected how big of a problem the turnovers are yet, there’s a good chance it will catch up to them if they don’t take better care of the ball soon. The Wolves currently have the third-highest turnover rate in the league, averaging 15.6 per game. Coincidentally, they also currently turn the ball over on 15.6% of their offensive possessions.
The Wolves average more turnovers than the 5-27 San Antonio Spurs, and the 9-23 Portland Trail Blazers, two rebuilding teams. Only two other teams are bottom-10 in turnovers per game and are above .500: the Phoenix Suns and the Orlando Magic average 14.8 turnovers per game. Conversely, there are only two teams in the top half of the league in turnovers per game who are under .500: the Brooklyn Nets (12.6) and the Chicago Bulls (12).
Given that the Bulls turn the ball over less than any other team in the league on average, and are still below .500, it’s clear that a statement like “good teams don’t turn the ball over” is a slight oversimplification. However, there is a strong correlation between good teams with good offenses and low turnover rates. The Philadelphia 76ers average the fourth-least turnovers in the league (12.2) and have the third-best offensive rating (120.8). The Denver Nuggets average the third-least turnovers per game (12.3) and have the seventh-best offensive rating (117.8).
There’s a good reason for this correlation, too. When a team turns over the ball, they lose a possession in which they had a chance to score and give an extra possession to their opponent. Additionally, depending on where and how the turnover happens, you could essentially be giving the other team two points, if they can convert the turnover into a fast break. It can be really hard to win games if you are giving your opponent extra, easier opportunities, and that isn’t an oversimplification. It is an especially big problem for the Wolves. They thrive in half-court defense, but they are susceptible to transition points because of the size and speed of their frontcourt.
The good news is that turnovers may be the one thing the Wolves truly have to fix to become a top-10 offense. As Finch stated in his press conference, when the Timberwolves take care of the ball, most of the time they get good shots. So far this year, when the Wolves have gotten good shots, they’ve made them efficiently. Although they go through plenty of cold stretches, looking at the entire season, the Wolves have actually been a top-10 team in shooting efficiency. They currently have the sixth-best field goal percentage in the league (48.6%). If you view the advanced stats, the Wolves have the eighth-best effective field goal percentage (55.7%), and the seventh-best true shooting percentage (59.6%).
Almost every team in the top 10 of eFG% is also in or near the top 10 of offensive rating, excluding the Timberwolves. That correlation also happens for a good reason. Each team can only have so many possessions in a game before the time runs out, and teams historically average around 100 possessions. Teams that make a higher percentage of their shots (and don’t turn the ball over) during those 100 or so possessions score more points and thus have a higher offensive rating.
The fact that the Wolves turn the ball over so often that they are nowhere near the top 10 in offensive rating despite their efficient shooting is bad. However, the good news is this seems like a fixable problem. Their shooting efficiency is similar to that of many teams that are in the top 10 in offense. That should mean that they can become a top-10 offense this season if they stop turning the ball over so frequently.
If the Wolves averaged even two fewer turnovers per game, which would put them tied with the New Orleans Pelicans for 15th in the league, that would greatly help their offense. They would give themselves two extra possessions, with the opportunity to score four to six more points on those possessions, while also not giving their opponents an easy chance to get four to six easy extra points off of those turnovers in transition. That could be as high as an eight to 12-point swing in a game in just two turnovers.
Even though the current roster has had almost a full season together, with Conley coming over at the trade deadline last year, they are still learning how to play as a group. Knowing how to use the strengths of your offense to combat different types of defenses will come with time. Against the New York Knicks on Monday, the lobs to Gobert that normally turn into easy points against small teams were ineffective due to New York’s size and stout interior defense. In a playoff series, the Wolves would have time to adjust their strategies and go away from what isn’t working.
Additionally, the team relies a lot on Edwards for offense, and he is still the youngest regular rotation player on the team. It’s normal for younger players, especially those who have as much offensive responsibility as Ant, to turn the ball over frequently. However, if there’s one thing we know about Ant, it’s that he’s a fast learner who has shown an ability to improve on his weaknesses throughout the season.
As Edwards continues to learn how to pick apart the double teams that opponents are throwing at him on almost every possession, he will not only get better at not turning the ball over but also getting passes to teammates who have open shots because of the double team. The more experience Ant gets as a distributor, the more he will be able to read and react to what defenses are giving him and make the right play. If he and the rest of the Wolves are able to cut back some of the easily preventable turnovers, then the team’s offense should become top 10 in the league, and have no trouble keeping pace with opponents in the playoffs.
