In the 1997 Simpsons episode Reality Bites, Marge Simpson talks to Homer about getting a job in real estate due to feeling unfulfilled on weekends.
“Selling real estate could be just what I’m looking for,” Marge implores Homer. “I’d like to give it a try.”
Homer replies with his natural, timeless wisdom.
“I don’t know, Marge,” he said. “Trying is the first step to failure.”
As team Canada enjoys some time off before their Aug. 1 game against Spain, Minnesota Timberwolves guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker seems to have put himself into a Reality Bites-like problem.
Alexander-Walker wants to prove he is more than just an energy player who plays excellent defense. But to gain more trust within the Wolves and Team Canada, he must display the ability to shoot and play-make at a meaningfully higher level than he had previously in his career.
However, after two Olympic games, Alexander-Walker has displayed many of the same old tendencies.
Last year, Alexander-Walker was one of the best perimeter defenders in the league among players who played at least 20 minutes per game. His 105.5 defensive rating ranked sixth in the NBA, a career-best, and defense has become Alexander-Walker’s strength. His energy level and willingness to guard the opposing team’s best guard effectively led to him earning a career-high in minutes (23.4) and cementing himself as a valuable bench player.
Alexander-Walker’s defense took a step back during Minnesota’s playoff run, but it remained at a high level. He saw his defensive rating rise to 110.7, which still ranked 37th out of the 103 players who played at least 20 minutes per game. Although he displayed a dip in production defensively, the Wolves also tasked him with guarding Devin Booker and Bradley Beal in the Phoenix Suns series, Jamal Murray of the Denver Nuggets, and Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving against the Dallas Mavericks. Alexander-Walker’s dip while having to defend those five guards seems justifiable.
His defense has also transferred to the Olympics. Alexander-Walker brought intensity and effort during Canada’s first game against Greece. He was the first guard off the bench and embraced the challenge of guarding Giannis Antetokounmpo despite a near seven-inch height difference. Alexander-Walker performed adequately in those matches, poking at the ball and maintaining position in the post. So much so that while hounding the ball on the last possession, it drew Giannoulis Larentzakis’ ire, who gave him a hard shoulder post-game and almost started a brawl.
Alexander-Walker came off the bench again in Canada’s second game, and he could also guard all of Australia’s backcourt. Despite being matched with players like Josh Giddey, Dante Exum, and Patty Mills, Alexander-Walker had a 0 plus-minus, and Canada won 93-83. Despite his defensive abilities, Alexander-Walker saw his playing time decrease from 12.5 minutes in Canada’s first game to only nine in its second.
Trying has become the first step of failure for Alexander-Walker. He’s shooting 0-for-7 from the field; more concerningly, he’s 0-for-6 from three from three. Alexander-Walker also has zero assists through two games and has generally been a non-factor with or without the ball. Unfortunately, for Wolves fans, this is a continuation of his drop in offensive production in the playoffs.
In the 2023-24 season, Alexander-Walker shot a career-best 39.1% from three on 4.1 attempts per game. He also averaged a career-high 2.8 assists per game, which amounted to a career-best 2.68 assists per turnover ratio. While Alexander-Walker stated that he would improve his playmaking for next season, his career highs in his first season playing backup point guard was a bright spot in a breakout season.
However, his offensive success fell off in the playoffs. Alexander-Walker’s three-point percentage fell by 9.5% to just 29.6%. Despite playing just 12 seconds more per game, his assist dropped to 2.3, which led to his assist-to-turnover ratio falling to 2.47. While the 0.33 change doesn’t seem like much, it is roughly a 12% drop in production. Again, we must highlight that the increase in competition likely led to the change in production, which likewise resulted in Alexander-Walker wanting to improve in these areas.
Alexander-Walker hasn’t shown that improvement in the Paris Olympics, though. Alexander-Walker has yet to hit a shot through 22 minutes, let alone a three. He also hasn’t logged an assist or turnover due to his lack of effectiveness with the ball. That has relegated Alexander-Walker to a lot of standing in the corner and waiting for the ball to swing to him. Team Canada will likely give him fewer minutes if he continues to miss shots.
Regardless of his Olympic or playoff experience, Alexander-Walker’s role with the Wolves should be cemented as a valuable bench piece. For a 2-0 team, Canada Alexander-Walker’s defense should also lead to him still seeing some playing time on the Olympic stage. With that playing time, he still has time to prove that trying to increase his offensive role isn’t the first step to failure.
