After the Dallas Mavericks eliminated the Minnesota Timberwolves in the playoffs, a reporter asked a dejected Nickeil Alexander-Walker whether he would focus on adding to his game or fine-tuning it.
“Definitely adding,” he said. “I think there is more that I could have brought to the team. I think I could have helped Mike (Conley) with playmaking. I want to be a better defender.”
Alexander-Walker will have his first chance to showcase any additions to his game in the upcoming Olympics for Team Canada. After showing consistency with the Minnesota Timberwolves, he will play a similar role for Canada as an off-the-bench defensive specialist on a team that hopes to medal in Paris.
Alexander-Walker broke out last season as the seventh man in Minnesota’s rotation in almost every statistical category. From a traditional statistical standpoint, he averaged career highs in minutes (23.4), three-point percentage (39.1), free-throw percentage (80.0), assists (2.5), and blocks (0.5). He also posted his highest points per game total (8.0) and rebounds per game (2.0) since 2021-22.
Alexander-Walker achieved this by fitting into his role as Minnesota’s first guard off the bench. He became a defensive stopper tasked with guarding the opposing team’s best perimeter player and effectively shutting them down, evidenced by only allowing opposing players to shoot 43.4% from the field and 37.8% from three.
That helped Alexander-Walker obtain the best defensive rating of his career, 105.5, which was 2.9 points better than Minnesota’s top-ranked 2023-24 defense. The Wolves are likely pleased that Alexander-Walker has listed getting better on defense as one of his off-season goals. If he can meaningfully improve his game, it will make an already strong defensive unit even better and potentially aid Minnesota’s ability to shut down teams with multiple defensive options, such as Dallas.
Alexander-Walker’s other stated goal, to get better at playmaking, would also assist the Wolves in taking the next step in 2024-25. Like with defense last season, Alexander-Walker had a much-improved playmaking season. He averaged a career-best 2.68 assists for every one turnover and a career-high 2.5 assists per game and performed much better than expected as the primary guard off the bench. In this case, it is less about how Alexander-Walker performed and more about the drop-off from Conley to Alexander-Walker.
If we average both players’ 36 minutes played, the differences in their production become clear. Conley averaged 7.4 assists and 1.7 turnovers for a 4.4 assist-to-turnover ratio. Meanwhile, Alexander-Walker averaged 3.6 assists and 1.4 turnovers for a 2.68 turnover ratio.
That means that in the same amount of playing time, Conley more than doubles Alexander-Walker’s assists while averaging nearly the same number of turnovers. One thing to consider is that the usage rate of both players is almost identical, with Conley having 15.7% and Alexander-Walker having 14.3%. Conley can nearly double Alexander-Walker’s production despite only having 1.4 more possessions than Alexander-Walker in a 100-possession game.
Playing for Team Canada, Alexander-Walker has proven that he deserves minutes in the Olympics. Still, like the Wolves, Team Canada will flank him with more capable playmakers in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jamal Murray. That means his role will be similar in that he will likely come off the bench as the first guard.
Team Canada has also structured its team to give Alexander-Walker plenty of opportunities to prove his stated goals. He will likely pick up the opposing team’s best guard, as Dillion Brooks and Luguentz Dort will likely play a Jaden McDaniels role by guarding the best wing player.
There will be a record 139 past or present NBA players in the France Olympics, giving Alexander-Walker a chance to showcase any of his defensive improvements against high-level guard competition. He will also be playing next to, for all extensive purposes, a lesser defender in Gilgeous-Alexander or Murray than Anthony Edwards.
Alexander-Walker’s offensive role for Canada will also be similar to his Wolves role. Coming off the bench, it should be expected that all his minutes will be played with either Alexander or Murray. That’s comparable to his role-playing with Conley and Edwards in that Team Canada will likely trust him to take the ball upcourt and initiate the offense’s first action to give the other guards a break.
If Alexander-Walker has improved in his playmaking, we should see a decrease in his turnovers and, hypothetically, an increase in his assist rate. The Wolves will trust him to run that first pick-and-roll or passing action. However, it won’t be as obvious how he fares for fans. He will be in the lineup with two all-star caliber guards who are always proven shotmakers. Alexander-Walker’s assist numbers could likely inflate due to the lesser competition and more skilled backcourt partners.
After losing to Dallas, Alexander-Walker finished his postgame answer by saying he wanted to “reach [his] full potential (and) try to be better at add(ing) value to the team.” Alexander-Walker has already shown that he adds value to the Wolves. If he can prove it in the Paris Olympics, it will allow everyone to see how much more he could bring to the team in 2024-25.
