After playing eight games through his first two NBA seasons with the Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics, P.J. Dozier signed a two-way contract with the Denver Nuggets on October 19, 2019. He didn’t play his first game until January 15, 2020, when he returned from an injury.
Dozier recorded 12 points, four rebounds, and two assists in 13 minutes in his Nuggets debut. He finished 5 of 7 from the floor and 2 of 4 from deep. Dozier was 23 years old and had limited NBA experience. Still, he looked far ahead of his time, earning the nickname “P.J. Composure” from Nuggets fans and media personnel.
“It’s an honor to have that nickname,” Dozier told DNVR Sports in September. “It definitely is something that describes my name, so I like it.”
Denver’s President of Basketball Operations at the time, Tim Connelly, saw something in Dozier. The South Carolina native became a valuable role player for the Nuggets during the regular season. Over the final 29 games, he averaged 5.8 points and 2.2 assists on 41.4% from the floor and 34.7% from three-point range in 14.2 minutes. His composed play earned Dozier a three-year, $3.8 million contract with Denver in June 2020.
Dozier had the best season of his career in the first year of that contract. He put up career highs across the board in games played (50), games started (6), points (7.7), rebounds (3.6), field goal percentage (41.7%), and minutes (21.8). The undrafted combo guard quickly rose in the NBA. However, injuries derailed his trajectory.
Three years later, Dozier finds himself (back) on the Minnesota Timberwolves, reuniting again with Connelly. As he did with Denver, P.J. doesn’t have high expectations to perform with the Wolves. However, he has a high chance of being their surprise player of the year.
This year will be Dozier’s second go-around with the Wolves. However, you probably missed his first stint if you blinked. He signed a ten-day contract before training camp in 2022. Dozier was still rehabbing a torn ACL he suffered in 2021, so the Timberwolves waived him before the season started. He stuck around with Minnesota’s G-League affiliate, Iowa Wolves, where he averaged 14.4 points and 6.8 rebounds on 44.4% from the floor and 35.3% from deep over seven games. The Sacramento Kings then signed him for the rest of the 2023 season.
Dozier once looked to have a promising role with the Nuggets, but he averaged only five minutes over 16 games in Sacramento. His role was dwindling, and he still wasn’t 100% healthy, so P.J. left the United States and landed a one-year deal with KK Partizan in Serbia for the 2023-24 season. He played in 33 games, his most in one season since 2021, registering 9.2 points, three rebounds, and three assists on 49% from the floor over 20.5 minutes.
“When I told him I was coming over here, he called me immediately,” Dozier said when asked if Nikola Jokić, a Serbian native, reached out to him after P.J. signed with KK Partizan. “[Jokic] was so excited for me to be able to have this opportunity to come out here and continue my career. He told me they will welcome me with open arms. … He was super excited and made me even more excited to come out here and start this season.”
KK Partizan is one of the biggest Euroleague teams with an incredibly passionate fan base. Euroleague stats need to be interpreted with context. Averaging nine points on 49% shooting may not seem too impressive for NBA standards. However, scoring efficiently at an international level is arguably more difficult than in the NBA because of the league’s physicality.
Connelly again liked what he saw from Dozier while playing in Serbia, so he signed P.J. to a one-year deal for the 2023-24 season. He hasn’t played in the NBA in over a year, but Dozier is healthy again. According to Spotrac, Dozier is on a fully guaranteed contract, so it seems like Connelly is confident in what he sees in him.
Dozier is a unique player. The Wolves list him at 6’6” with a 6’11” wingspan, which fits into a traditional 3-and-D combo guard/forward mold. However, P.J. has been a natural point guard most of his career and displayed his comfortability with the ball in his hands with KK Partizan.
He excels at attacking the rim, especially in pick-and-roll sets. Dozier showed this skill in his debut with the Nuggets and relied heavily on it overseas.
Dozier doesn’t have eye-catching dribble moves and isn’t remarkably fast, but he is quick for his size and comfortable operating around the rim and mid-range. With Denver in 2020-21, 19% of his shot attempts per game came from the long-mid range, ranking him in the 91st percentile, according to Cleaningtheglass.
Below is a look at his shot chart from that season. Those mid-range looks were almost exclusively from around the free-throw line.
The Wolves are putting a lot of expectations on Rob Dillingham in his rookie season. They are asking the 19-year-old who started in one game for Kentucky to be their backup point guard immediately. His transition to the NBA won’t be smooth, and the Timberwolves don’t have another true backup guard. Therefore, bringing in Dozier, a capable point guard by nature, will help add depth to the roster.
Shooting has been Dozier’s main weakness. He is a career 30.7% three-point shooter and connected on 29% of his threes with KK Partizan. In 2021, he shot 32% from three, and in 2022, he shot 31%. However, 2020 was different, when Dozier shot 40% from deep (87th percentile) and 44% from the corners (97th percentile).
There’s no clear-cut reason why his shooting splits have slowly gotten worse other than getting different looks in different offensive systems. However, his jump shot is quick and repeatable, coupled with a long wingspan, which makes it easier to shoot over the top of a defender.
Dozier must become a more reliable shooter to carve out a rotational spot. He doesn’t necessarily need to take more threes, but he has to connect on the ones he takes at a higher rate to improve his off-ball offense. He can already be an off-ball threat with his ability to back-cut from the corners. Therefore, improving his three-point stroke could be the final piece Dozier needs to add to return to producing NBA-level offense.
Regardless of if Dozier continues to develop on offense, his defense will remain a constant force. As mentioned above, he’s a lengthy guard who’s an intelligent defender. Because of his frame, P.J. can effectively provide resistance against most guards and forwards at any level. It’s an intangible that every NBA team can use, especially the Wolves, who have stacked up on scrappy wing defenders, such as Jaden McDaniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Terrence Shannon Jr., and Dozier. Having four combo guards who are versatile defenders is incredibly valuable because it allows Chris Finch to get creative with lineups and have some health insurance when inevitable injury pop up during a long season.
Connelly is confident in Dozier and used Minnesota’s second-to-last roster spot to sign him instead of obtaining another point guard, which surprised most fans. Dozier is buried deep in the Wolves’ depth chart, and I don’t see him having a role unless an injury pops up. However, if the Timberwolves present him with playing time, the six-year NBA veteran has the experience, upside, and composure to surprise fans.
