After a 114-93 win against the Charlotte Hornets 10 days ago in which Naz Reid scored 25 points off the bench, Chris Finch lauded his team, saying, “I’m lucky. I have eight starters. I’m really spoiled for choice.”
A lot has changed in the world since Finch uttered these words. Some say America held an election, and we have a new old president. A Forest Lake High School alumnus is about to be in charge of the defense of the United States of America, and the Minnesota Timberwolves are bad now after losing three straight games in increasingly gut-wrenching fashion.
Unfortunately for Finch, the NBA only allows teams to start five players every game. Last season’s starting lineup was the engine that fueled Minnesota’s run to the Western Conference Finals. However, this season’s starting group has fueled a 6-6 start, causing more statewide panic than knowing a former Forest Lake Ranger is calling the shots in the situation room.
Finch used the same starting lineup in Minnesota’s first 11 games this season. Mike Conley, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, and Rudy Gobert. On paper, it’s one of the best starting fives in the NBA. However, this unit has been widely underperforming at the start of the season. Twelve games may seem like a small sample size, but it’s almost 15 percent of the way through the season. If Finch wants to send a message after three inexcusable losses in a row, now might be the time to make a major change to the starting lineup and breathe some life back into the Timberwolves.
Last season’s starting lineup carved up opposing defenses with Karl-Anthony Towns as the power forward. The starting lineup of Conley/Edwards/McDaniels/Towns/Gobert played 641 minutes together with a plus-7.9 net rating in 45 games. That was the seventh-best five-man lineup that played more than 500 minutes together in the NBA last season. The lineup’s net rating rose to plus-12.4 in 207 postseason minutes, with a 103.3 defensive rating.
The Timberwolves dominated opponents every time their starting lineup was on the court. However, this season, the starting lineup with Randle replacing Towns has a minus-3.0 net rating in 138 minutes. The offense is worse, and the defense is nowhere near last year’s league-leading unit.
Finch said it takes about 20 games for a team to find its identity, so there may be time for this lineup to figure it out. Still, Minnesota’s three-game losing streak might speed up that timeline. Last year, the Wolves didn’t lose three games in a row until the Western Conference Finals. This year, it came in game 12 to a Portland team with its eyes on Cooper Flagg in the 2025 NBA draft.
Technically, Finch already shook up the starting lineup by inserting Nickeil Alexander-Walker to give Conley a rest on Wednesday in Portland on the second night of a back-to-back. NAW was one of the only Wolves players playing hard and making shots. However, he also committed four turnovers and couldn’t provide enough spark in 32 minutes to snap the Timberwolves out of their funk.
NAW could be in the running to take the full-time starting job away from 37-year-old Conley, who is shooting 31.3 percent from the floor in his 18th NBA season. NAW and Conley have the same career turnover rate of 12.9 percent, but Conley’s assist rate of 28.7 is almost double NAW’s career mark of 15.9. Conley and Alexander are above-average shooters during their stint in Minnesota, and NAW provides a much more dogged point-of-attack defense than Conley.
In 27 minutes together this season, the Naw/Ant/McDaniels/Randle/and Gobert lineup is plus-13.8 points per 100 possessions with a defensive rating of 87.9. Inserting NAW into the starting lineup permanently could strip the Wolves of the wiley veteran point guard play Conley has offered NBA teams since 2007. But alongside Ant, McDaniels, and last year’s DPOY, NAW could get the Wolves back to their roots as the best defensive team in the league.
Donte DiVincenzo could also step into the starting lead guard role if Conley’s skid continues. However, DiVincenzo has struggled since arriving in Minnesota. After a breakout season and playoff run last year in New York, DiVincenzo is shooting 34.2 percent from the field and 30.6 from three. DiVincenzo has played 31 minutes with the four starters, minus Mike Conley, and has a modest plus-2.9 net rating. When DiVincenzo shares the court with Edwards, Minnesota’s net rating spikes to plus-8.2, with average offensive production and great defense.
The Wolves could also change their frontcourt. Randle wasn’t around for last year’s dominance, and Reid has a better season this year than his Sixth Man of the Year season. He’s averaging 15.3 points and 5.3 rebounds per game on a 53.3/45.3/92.6 shooting split.
Naz has only played two minutes this season with the starters in place of Randle. Still, his work next to Gobert could shed some light on how that duo could play together in an expanded role. The Naz/Rudy frontcourt generates an astonishing 97 defensive rating and a plus-10.2 net rating. Look at any of the top two-man lineups for the Timberwolves, and Reid’s name is all over the place. Naz is fantastic next to almost all his teammates except for Jaden McDaniels, which highlights another issue.
McDaniels is a shell of himself this year. His shooting is down across the board. His defense has regressed from his second-team All-Defense selection last year, and his fouls are somehow up. The Wolves are 12.1 points per 100 possessions better when McDaniels sits, and the body language looks like he’s searching for anything to go right on the court. The Timberwolves also don’t have a natural replacement for McDaniels in the starting lineup.
Josh Minott isn’t ready for starter minutes, and the other options off the bench would skew Minnesota’s starting lineup really big or small. Finch could experiment with sliding Reid into the lineup at the four and slide Randle down to the three or vice versa. Either would struggle to contain smaller, quicker forwards on the perimeter. Still, the influx of size and shooting could pay massive dividends and give McDaniels time to compose himself with a defensive-minded second unit. Finch has yet to unleash Naz, Randle, and Gobert together, but it could improve upon the current starting frontcourt with a minus-0.2 net rating.
Reid, DiVincenzo, and Alexander-Walker are all starting-caliber players for many teams across the NBA. The Timberwolves remain among the most talented teams in the league, but something isn’t clicking yet. Finch has several options, but don’t be surprised if he makes a change sooner than later.
