Sixty-two. That’s how many days the Minnesota Timberwolves have had at least a piece of first place in the Western Conference this season. Whether they’ve been alone in the catbird seat or tied with the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Wolves are just over halfway through one of the most successful seasons in franchise history.
Entering this season, the Timberwolves were the outright top seed in the West for 10 days in 34 years of existence. It’s a big step for the Wolves to be the team with a target on its back instead of completely irrelevant by the All-Star break. But Minnesota’s January wobble has many around the league doubting its legitimacy.
With the sleeping giants in the West stirring from hibernation and the standings tightening up, the Wolves must remain the top seed throughout the back half of the regular season and into the playoffs to capitalize on the team’s best chance to win its first championship since the Sam Cassell big balls incident of 2004.
Of the previous 77 teams that have hoisted the Larry O’Brien Trophy, 51 champions were the top seed in their conference, and 38 No. 1 seeds finished as runners-up. Eighty-nine of 154 Finals teams had earned the No. 1 seed, far exceeding NBA Finals representation from any other seed. Two seeds won 16 championships and lost 23, three seeds are 8-8 in the Finals, and the only other champions were the sixth-seeded Houston Rockets in 1995 and the fourth-seeded Boston Celtics in 1969.
The Timberwolves had the inside track to make the Finals when they earned the West’s top spot in 2004. The Wolves beat the eighth-seeded Denver Nuggets in five games to win the franchise’s first playoff series. Then, instead of facing the second-seeded Los Angeles Lakers, who were a year removed from a dominating threepeat, or the third-seeded and reigning champion San Antonio Spurs, they drew the talented but beatable Sacramento Kings.
Minnesota didn’t have to face the Lakers until the Conference Finals. Had the Timberwolves settled for the second or third seed, we wouldn’t be talking about the Wolves being a few untimely injuries away from making a Finals appearance. They might have lost in the second round if they matched up against the Lakers or Spurs.
You saw the importance of seeding last year when the Wolves fell into the Play-In, lost to the Lakers, and had to beat the Thunder to secure the eighth seed and a matchup with the eventual champion Nuggets. They would have faced the much more vulnerable Grizzlies had they beaten LA for the seventh seed.
The West is similarly stacked again this year; only 5.5 games separate first place from sixth. The Wolves would have the top spot if the season ended today. They would play the eighth-seeded team, which would be one of the Kings, Dallas Mavericks, Utah Jazz, or Lakers. If the standings hold throughout the playoffs, they would play Mavericks in the first round, Clippers in the second round, and Thunder in the Western Conference Finals with a first-ever Finals berth on the line.
But if the Wolves flip-flop with the Thunder and were second in the West, they would face a more challenging road to the Finals. They would play Sacramento in the first round, Denver in the second, and a Thunder in the WCF without homecourt advantage. Therein lies the biggest reason to gun for the first overall seed throughout the playoffs.
The Timberwolves are 17-4 at home and 15-9 on the road. Those aren’t all that disparate records, but Minnesota’s defense craters away from the Target Center. They allow 104.6 points per 100 possessions at home, four points better than their top-rated season-long defense. Their defensive rating drops to 112.2 on the road, which would still be seventh best in the NBA. However, that’s a drastic difference that could manifest if the Wolves play on the road in the playoffs. Minnesota’s net rating at home is +9 and drops to +2.2 on the road. Homecourt advantage would be a huge swing in their playoff potential.
We’re two weeks before the trade deadline, which means no title contender is a finished product. There are still trades to be made, buyout players to add, and season-changing injuries lurking in the shadows. As we pass the midway point of the 2023-24 season, at least 15 teams still believe they have a shot at winning the championship. The Wolves own the second-best record in the league and lead the West. But these are uncharted waters, and Minnesota’s core must refocus to accomplish its goals.
The Wolves could win 60 games, lose in the first round of the playoffs, win a playoff series for the first time since 2004, or win it all. Regardless, Minnesota’s first goal should be to secure the No. 1 seed by any means necessary.
