The Minnesota Timberwolves are still in first place in the Western Conference. Yet, national respect for the Wolves does not match their 28-11 record this season. According to MGM, the Wolves are currently +1800 to win the championship. That’s the seventh-best odds in the NBA despite having the second-best record in the league, trailing only behind the 31-9 Boston Celtics.
In their most recent power rankings, NBA.com discredits the Timberwolves by having them ranked fourth overall, behind the Denver Nuggets and the Oklahoma City Thunder, who have worse records than Minnesota. Despite the national opinion, the Wolves are showing signs of being a contender. One of their championship qualities is their play in the third quarter.
Looking at third quarters is essential when measuring a team’s championship odds because it represents coaching adjustments and a team’s ability to respond to adversity. A team can rectify a slow start coming out of the half if they increase their energy and change their schemes. All good teams must have third-quarter success, and Minnesota’s ability to increase their efficiencies in the third quarter is among some of the best teams in modern NBA history.
Defense
Minnesota’s third-quarter defense is truly suffocating, with a league-best 102.9 defense rating (amount of points allowed per 100 possessions). That’s 6.6 points better than the second-place Philadelphia 76ers and 5.5 points better than the Wolves’ overall defense. That’s primarily due to the Timberwolves forcing opponents into bad shots.
The Wolves have only allowed teams to shoot 44.3% from the field and 34.8% from three. Combined, that’s a league-best 50.8 effective field goal percentage in the third quarters, a full 1.2% better than second place. For reference, 1.2% is the difference between second-best and eighth for the rest of the NBA. (Effective field goal percentage factors in two-point and three-point percentages to give an accurate number of the added value of three-point shots.)
Most championship teams can truly clamp down on teams after the half. Looking back, great teams like the 2017-18 Golden State Warriors had similar changes in their defensive metrics. Their defensive rating improved from an eleventh-ranked 106.8 to 102.5 in the third quarter, a 4.3-point jump in efficiency similar to Minnesota’s 5.5.
Minnesota’s effective field goal percentage is strikingly similar to Golden State’s in their championship run. In 2017-18, the Warriors would tighten their defense up in the third quarters and go from a 55.0% effective shooting to an impressive (league average is 55.0%) 52.2%, a 2.8% drop in opponent’s shooting. That’s only slightly better than the Wolves’ 2.5% increase in the third quarter.
While Minnesota’s offense doesn’t compare to the 2017-18 Warriors, both teams consistently ratchet up the defense in the third quarter. Considering that the Wolves have the league’s best defense as their foundation, they take things to the next level by improving at halftime. It’s the biggest indication that the Wolves have a championship mentality.
Offense
The Wolves offense has struggled throughout much of the 2023-24 season, ranking twentieth overall in offensive rating. The Wolves don’t need to be elite offensively because of their defensive ranking. Offensive rating reflects how well they perform per 100 possessions, and Minnesota’s offense meaningfully improves in the third quarter.
Their overall offensive rating is 114.0, but they increase that number to 115.9 in the third quarter alone. While the Wolves don’t surge in the third quarter overall rankings, only rising to the 19th, the 1.9 increase is still notable. For comparison, the Celtics have the NBA’s best record, but their offense drops off in the third quarter, going from 120.5 overall to 116.7 in the third.
Looking at past championship teams, last year’s Denver Nuggets have a similar increase to the Wolves in offensive rating. With an offensive rating of 116.8, the Nuggets ranked fifth in the league. However, Denver improved to 118.4 in the third quarter, a 1.6-point increase.
In 2021-22, the Warriors had a baseline 112.1 offensive rating that increased to 115.1 in the third quarter, a 3.0-point improvement. Both are comparable to Minnesota’s 1.9 increase. That suggests the Wolves can improve as the game goes on, similar to past champions.
Minnesota’s offense isn’t as potent as the 2022-23 Nuggets and the 2021-22 Warriors, but they share a similar increase in production in the third quarter. As the Wolves continue to improve on offense or make some adjustments to their roster at the trade deadline, their offensive rating improvement could get even better.
Like recent championship teams, the Wolves can increase their production and intensity in the third quarter. It’s hard to say whether this is due to good coaching or the players sensing that they can put the game away after halftime. Regardless of the reason, the Wolves have had a championship mentality after halftime. Given that the national eye isn’t focused on the Wolves, the public may be in for a surprise come playoff time as the Wolves smother opponents in the third quarter.
