Eighteen-point-seven minutes. That’s the amount of time 36-year-old floor general Mike Conley spends resting on the bench each game. In those 18.7 minutes, the Minnesota Timberwolves offense dips by 7.6 points per 100 possessions, according to cleaningtheglass.com’s on/off metric. That alone suggests they need to upgrade Conley’s backup. That’s mainly because the Wolves don’t have a proper backup point guard. With the trade deadline rapidly approaching, there are opportunities for Minnesota to find relief in the minutes when Conley isn’t playing.
First, it’s essential to understand the current situation and the disparities the Timberwolves face, then identify players who could be potential trade targets. The Wolves probably started the season hoping that Shake Milton would serve as Conley’s backup. But he’s shooting a career-worst 26.5% from three and having a career-high 14.5% turnover volume. Therefore, the Wolves have relegated Milton to the bench, and he rarely sees playing time. (It should be noted that he does appear to be one of the best teammates on the bench and is always engaged.)
Jordan McLaughlin was another option, but he suffered an MCL injury. He has struggled to find his rhythm after returning, shooting 36.4% from the field and 31.3% from three in his last 5 games. McLaughlin will likely return to the end of the bench soon, although Chris Finch has given him consistent minutes lately.
The Wolves have also used Kyle Anderson and Nickeil Alexander-Walker to fill the backup role. Anderson and Alexander-Walker have performed admirably. But point guard is neither of their natural positions, and both players have significant shortcomings in their games.
Anderson’s most noticeable flaw is that he is shooting 12.0% from three. Anderson can be crafty enough to be effective on offense. But his lack of shooting eliminates him as a threat on the pick-and-roll and corner threes. Conley excels in the pick-and-roll and shoots well from the corner, opening the offense for Rudy Gobert, a non-shooter. Due to Anderson’s flaws, Minnesota’s offense rating drops from 113.8 overall to 107.8 just by having Anderson on the floor. Even though Anderson’s defense, playmaking, and floater game are all elite this season, his shooting absence indicates that he should have a more tertiary role on the floor.
Alexander-Walker’s defense has been remarkable, and nobody on the team matches his energy, which has helped him secure a role and consistent minutes. However, he suffers from the same issues Anderson does when he tries to fill Conley’s void.
To his credit, Alexander-Walker has shown meaningful improvements in his offensive game this season. But he still has shortfalls that may hurt the Wolves long term. Alexander-Walker has a 10.2% turnover ratio. For comparison, Conley’s is 6.5%. That may not seem like a big gap, but that difference implies that Alexander-Walker will turn the ball over one more time than Conley every 25 plays.
Alexander-Walker’s shooting is also streaky for a player who shoots 36.2% from three. In 17 games this season, Alexander-Walker has shot under 30% from three. But he has shot 50% and over in 16 games. Alexander-Walker’s lack of consistency accounts for 33 to 37 games where he’s either great or a liability from three. Alexander-Walker’s shooting and turnovers suggest he may be better suited for a less ball-dominant role on offense.
The deficiencies of assist-to-turnover ratio, three-point percentage, offensive rating, and turnover ratio should be Minnesota’s primary focus when looking for a replacement.
Below are some examples of players that could be targeted to address these needs
- Tyus Jones (Washington) – Minnesota native and old friend of the Timberwolves.
- 6.18 assist-to-turnover ratio (Conley is at 6.0)
- 43.1% from three.
111.3 offensive rating - turnover ratio of 5.3
- Aaron Holiday (Houston) – journeyman backup guard.
- 2.11 assist to turnover
- 41.1% from three
- Offensive rating of 110.6
- turnover ratio of 9.4
- Kris Dunn (Utah) – former Wolves first-rounder.
- 3.32 assist to turnover
- 37.2% from three
- Offensive rating of 117.2
- turnover ratio of 12.2
Tyus Jones
Jones stands out the most of the three guards above. Jones is putting together an impressive season for a 6-31 Washington Wizards team. While Jones may be Minnesota’s dream acquisition, it’s hard to see Washington letting him go without getting a significant return. Due to Jones’ salary, the Wolves would likely have to add Naz Reid and potentially draft picks to the trade package.
That ultimately would be too big of a price for the Wolves to pay. However, Jones would seemingly solve all of Minnesota’s backup guard problems. He’s an elite ball-handler who rarely turns it over, and he’s shooting a career-high 52.6% from the field and 43.1% from three. The chart below compares Jones’ shooting percentages to the league average.
Aaron Holiday
Holiday is a streaky shooter like Alexander-Walker. He has typically played shooting guard despite his small size (6’0″, 185 lbs.) during his career, but he has performed well when he’s had to play point guard. Holiday’s three-point shooting consistency should improve in the backup role.
He’s also a crafty veteran searching for a consistent role and team. Holiday’s $2 million salary suggests he may be available for Shake Milton, second-round picks or a prospect like Josh Minott. Below is a compilation of Holiday, courtesy of the Houston Rockets Twitter. Notice the consistency in his three-point release and how he finds open spots on the floor off the ball.
Kris Dunn
Finally, the Wolves should consider bringing Dunn back. While fans may remember him as the player Tom Thibodeau chose over Jamal Murray, he has significantly grown his game. Dunn is still an impeccable defender capable of locking up multiple positions.
Dunn has developed a decent three-point shot and has become more confident initiating the offense in Utah. Like Holiday, Dunn has a smaller contract ($2.5 million), suggesting the Timberwolves could acquire him for Milton and second-round picks or a prospect. Utah appears to be sellers, so this could be another opportunity for Tim Connelly to do business with the Jazz. Below is a compilation of Kris Dunn’s defense, his best attribute. Couple that with his improved shot, and he becomes a great Wolves trade target.
Ultimately, the Wolves may consider all the options and decide their current roster is good enough. The Wolves are one of the best teams in the Western Conference, and they only have to fill Conley’s 18.7 minutes on the bench. However, some teams may have affordable options at the deadline. Therefore, it may be worth the flier to try and add one more piece to bolster their bench for a championship run.
