Locks
NFL (0.5 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN
Minnesota Vikings @ LA Rams +8.5
I’m not sure what the Vikings have left in the tank after the emotional letdown of the possibility of the 1 seed turning into the disappointment of the 5 seed. Add in that they have to travel again this week, with those travel plans disrupted, and I think it will be tough for them to run away in this game.
They don’t tend to get into games where they win by multiple scores anyway, going 9-1 straight up in one score games this season. This is also a familiar script, as they came off a tough loss to Detroit before facing, and falling to, the Rams back in October. Teams after playing Detroit this season are just 4-12 ATS as having to deal with that tough a team takes it out of you.
They’re also up against the veteran presence of Matthew Stafford, who shredded Minnesota’s zone defense concepts in the first meeting. Sam Darnold making his first playoff appearance after last week’s debacle will be difficult, especially since QB’s with no playoff experience playing away from home against a veteran playoff QB like Stafford are just 11-21 straight up since 2002. The Vikings can still win this game, but getting a rested Rams squad on an emotional boost at more than a full possession is too good to pass up.
Minnesota Vikings/LA Rams Over 41.5
The offensive issues that plagued the Vikings last week are concerning, but they’ve bounced back from scoring struggles before this season. They can’t afford not to, since even though this is a playoff environment, I think plenty of points will be needed to win tonight. I mentioned above how I expect Stafford and the Rams offense, which looks about as healthy as it has all season, to have success against Minnesota’s pressure and zone looks.
So the Vikings will need to get things going on offense against an LA defense that is playing better, but still ranks 25th in EPA/play and 26th in success rate. We’re getting a fairly high total in this game due to these teams combining for 50 in the regular season meeting, plus those defenses that can be exploited. But indoor playoff games since 2003 are 35-18 to the over, and they have an officiating crew tonight that was the league’s best to the over at 11-4, so adjusting this total through several key numbers makes me pretty comfortable.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies/Houston Rockets First Quarter Over 57.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on NBA TV
This is a matchup of strength on strength, but one of those strengths has demonstrated a clear advantage. Memphis comes into this game scoring the most first quarter points in the league at 31.9, while Houston allows the fewest in opening quarters at 25.6 points. Doesn’t take much math to see those two averages combine for 57.5 points, so this should be a fair number, right? I don’t think so given what we’ve seen when these teams have gotten together this season.
The Grizzlies and Rockets have met twice, and the first quarters saw 76 and 81 points while all other quarters averaged just 52.2 points. Memphis’s league-leading tempo, with all the starters playing right away, seems to be winning out and should create another wild opening quarter tonight. While the full-game total has risen considerably due to those higher scoring meetings, this first quarter total has not moved much from the first game. Two instances of the same exact script playing out does not seem accidental to me, so I’ll count on the trend continuing here.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) McNeese St Team Total Over 76.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
The total in this game is on the rise despite metrics sites projecting a considerably lower-scoring game. I think the reason for it is specifically McNeese’s ability to score here, so I’m going to isolate their team total.
The Cowboys have been dominant in Southland play so far, going 5-0 while averaging 82.4 PPG and setting a 4-1 mark over this team total. The matchup here screams plenty of easy scoring for McNeese, since Will Wade doesn’t have the shooters to play his preferred style of high three-point volume and has had to rely on inside scoring.
That’s perfect against Houston Christian, who is 342nd in two-point percentage defense and allowing the highest split of opponent points to be scored inside the arc. The Huskies have allowed just 71.0 PPG in their 5 league games, but have faced 4 offenses outside the top-250 in adjusted efficiency. That changes here with McNeese ranking 86th, and I think it results in the Cowboys putting up another big number.
Degenerates
NBA 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+185; Odds via Caesars)
San Antonio Spurs @ LA Lakers 1st Quarter ML (-140): 9:30 PM CT on NBA TV
Miami Heat @ LA Clippers 1st Quarter ML (-150): 9:30 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SC
The city of Los Angeles has been through far too much and needs a win, so I’d expect both of the home NBA squads to come out with a vengeance in these games. It doesn’t hurt that both the Lakers and Clippers have positive average margins in first quarters at home this season, while both the Spurs and Heat have negative margins on the road. I’ve seen enough sports in my life to know when these kind of storybook situations are going to play out, so I’ll take a shot on this parlay at a nice plus-juice price.
Tiny Nick has gained +73.6 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
