Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Luka Doncic Over 28.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 2:30 PM CT on ABC
With the Wolves up 2-1 in this series, I’m getting a distinct empire-strikes-back kind of feeling today. What I really expect to strike back is the scoring from Luka as he gets over whatever stomach bug was plaguing him on Friday night. Side note, if that was something like the Jordan food poisoning incident in Utah from back in the day, then shoutout to the Four Seasons Minneapolis room service team. But even under the weather, Doncic was able to put up 17 points on Friday, and returning to normal here should get him back into the 30’s in the scoring column.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Boston Celtics -2.5 First Quarter @ Orlando Magic (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on TNT
The Celtics were a victim of their own strategy in that Game 3 loss, simply going ice cold from deep for too long of a stretch to compensate for. That’s not going to happen too often with Boston, and I expect the bounce back to come right away tonight. The Celtics are one of the league’s best first quarter teams, ranking second in average margin on the road thanks to typically overwhelming opponents with a barrage of three’s. Orlando is not built to keep up with that, only to try to contain it, so if positive regression hits hard for the Celtics tonight, they’ll build a big early lead.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks Team Total Over 115.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on TNT
Game 1 of this series saw Milwaukee set offensive basketball back a couple of decades. Game 2 saw the return of Damian Lillard from an extended absence, and even though he was rusty the Bucks managed 115 points. Game 3, back on their home floor, with Lillard shooting it horribly, the Bucks got to 117 points. The regular season meetings saw Milwaukee average 122.3 PPG with Dame having a couple of pedestrian performances, but at home they scored 129 and 126 points. So long story short, being at home with decent play from Lillard gets the Bucks over this total consistently against the relatively subpar Pacers defense, and that’s what I see happening tonight.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Philadelphia Phillies/Chicago Cubs Over 8 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
I’m surprised to see this number with the best over team in baseball in action. The Cubs lead MLB with a 17-9-2 record to the over, including 9-3-1 at home. Wrigley and the wind can complicate things, but there isn’t much in the way of negative wind impact tonight so that’s not what is holding this number down. The pitching matchup to me looks ripe for runs, especially with Aaron Nola taking the mound with his shocking 6.43 ERA and 1.61 WHIP this season.
This Cubs lineup might be the best in the game, and is certainly the deepest 1 through 9, so I like their potential to keep Nola struggling. And as the Phillies showed yesterday in breaking out of a slump, their offense is still fearsome and they have a great history against Cubs starter Jameson Taillon. The Cubs also happen to be 7-3 to the over with the highest plus/minus to the total after a loss, so I’m expecting plenty of scoring tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 14-19 (-3.65 Units) – Recommend: Fade
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
