Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Michael Busch Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105; Odds via DraftKings): 5:45 PM CT on Marquee
Fading Nationals starter Trevor Williams at home is usually a good decision, as he’s struggled with a 6.48 ERA. He gets even worse when facing lefthanded hitters who can hit with power, allowing a .354 batting average and .942 OPS, and that describes three key pieces of the Cubs lineup. But I’m looking at Busch here because he’s the one with a plus-juice price in the total bases market, has drastically better stats against righties than lefties, and actually hit 46 points better on the road with a much higher OPS as well. The Cubs should be able to get to Williams in general, and I think Busch is a key part of that tonight.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Texas Rangers/Tampa Bay Rays First 5 Innings Under 4 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:35 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SUN
There are two very good starting pitchers going in this one, and should get added boosts from weak lineups and weather to keep this a low-scoring start. Drew Rasmussen for the Rays has been untouchable lately, currently riding an 18-inning scoreless streak where he’s only allowed 12 total baserunners. This Rangers team is atrocious against righthanded pitching, ranked 27th in scoring and 28th in weighted runs created, so I don’t see them doing much against a hot Rasmussen.
The Rays are much better at the plate than Texas, especially against righties, but still aren’t an elite hitting club as they’re still just middle of the pack for most metrics. And they should have trouble with Tyler Mahle again, who already threw 5 innings of shutout ball against them in early May. The sneaky key should be the weather, with light rain and wind blowing in at the minor league park that is usually ripe for runs, but I see things getting off to a slow start tonight.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120; Odds via DraftKings): 9:10 PM CT on TBS
Freeman’s total bases prop should only have plus-juice on the over when he’s facing a lefthanded starting pitcher, otherwise it’s an automatic bet for me. I don’t care if it’s Paul Skenes visiting LA, when you put Freeman at home against a righty he just crushes them. The Dodger first baseman is batting .403 with a 1.163 OPS against righties now, along with .386 and a 1.085 OPS at home in general. The past month he’s hitting .390 with a 1.036 OPS, and has 30 total bases in his past 15 games overall, so this kind of price is simply preposterous.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Lynx -11.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN3
This should be a good opportunity for the Lynx to establish themselves in the driver’s seat for the Commissioner’s Cup as they take on a shorthanded opponent. The Mercury come to Target Center without Alyssa Thomas, who has been arguably their most important player this season. While Thomas didn’t play in the squeaker of a first meeting last week, neither did Napheesa Collier, and the Lynx offense is just so much different with her healthy. This being a Commissioner’s Cup game, the Lynx are incentivized to run up the score, and at full strength I expect them to do just that.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 16-10 (+3.25 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
