Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Milwaukee Brewers/Minnesota Twins First 5 Innings Under 4 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:10 PM CT on Fanduel Sports WI
The top pitching prospect for Milwaukee is up in the big leagues and gets his second career start tonight. Jacob Misiorowski is a scary one too, with nasty stuff from an unusual delivery as the Cardinals found out last week in not even managing a hit against him. The Twins are just average against righties like Misiorowski, are in a tough spot having never seen him before, and are in a classic Malinsky Special situation which often hampers the offense.
Fortunately though they have Joe Ryan countering, who has excellent numbers against the Brewers and has been really good at home. The Brewers are even worse against righties, so I’m expecting a quiet start from both offenses as these starting pitchers should dominate.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks/Colorado Rockies Over 12 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:40 PM CT on COLR
It’s finally that time of year in Denver, with hot weather and the wind blowing out at Coors Field. Those are custom-made conditions for runs, and I don’t think these teams will miss the opportunity. It’s not crazy to say that Colorado’s offense has improved recently, averaging 5.7 runs per game over their past 10 games with only 3 of those in hitter-friendly Coors. Their home/road hitting splits are once again wild, and they’re hitting righties like Arizona starter Zac Gallen much better.
Gallen does not seem like his old self this season, and was on the mound when these teams combined for 26 runs down in Arizona a month ago. But the offense behind him is still elite, and should show it in these hitting conditions against Austin Gomber. The Rockies lefty is back off the IL, but has always been vulnerable at home and the D’Backs have plenty of success against him. This total is where it is for a reason, and I think both offenses make big contributions to getting over that number tonight.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Houston Astros -1.5 @ LA Angels (+105; Odds via Caesars): 8:38 PM CT on SCHN
This is an atrocious scheduling situation for the Angels to be in, and I think they fold quickly in a Houston runaway. The Angels just played yesterday in New York City, for a game that had a weather delay no less, and then had to fly back home across the country. That’s a brutal Malinsky Special, but made even more difficult by the Astros being red hot and having an excellent starter going.
Hunter Brown gives them a huge advantage on the mound today, who has just a 1.48 ERA and 0.97 WHIP across his past 4 starts, and has also shut this Angels lineup down before. The Astros going against Yusei Kikuchi can be complicated as he’s been outstanding at home this season. But Houston is the best team in baseball for OPS, wOBA, and WRC+ against lefties so they’ll have opportunities tonight, and cashing in a couple of them should make for a big enough margin to cover the run line.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 14-18 (-4.18Units) – Recommend: Fade
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
