Locks
WNBA (0.75 Unit) Phoenix Mercury @ Minnesota Lynx -10.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North
The Lynx love a revenge spot, case in point Monday’s win and cover over the Sky after falling to them in the previous game. So today sets up well for them from that standpoint, as the Mercury beat them in a bad game by Minnesota a week ago. The Lynx played themselves out of that game with poor three-point shooting and a lot of turnovers, things they always seem to clean up when they’re out for revenge. Phoenix also comes in very shorthanded with no Kaleah Copper or Satou Sabally today, and Sabally especially has been a thorn in Minnesota’s side this season. I think the Lynx are simply too good at home and in motivated spots, so this should end up as a runaway.
WNBA (0.75 Unit) Las Vegas Aces/Dallas Wings Over 170 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Vegas 34
This total is inexplicably coming down, and I have to buy the over at a discount here. Any time Dallas is taking the floor with their awful defense and fast pace I’m looking to get involved on the over, as they allow the third-most points, the highest three-point percentage, and can’t guard without fouling. The Wings have allowed triple digits in two of their past three games as they deal with injuries, but should get DiJonai Carrington back tonight which helps the offense more than the defense.
Las Vegas should be able to take advantage as they’ve regained some offensive momentum with A’Ja Wilson returning, but the Aces have had plenty of defensive problems themselves this season. These teams combined for 172 points in the other meeting this season when Wilson didn’t play, so both teams being close to full strength offensively should send this over the discounted total.
NBA Summer League (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves -8.5 vs Phoenix Suns (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:00 PM CT on NBA TV
What an interesting afternoon with the Lynx and Wolves both playing Phoenix. I think this later contest should be similar to the first in that it’s a double-digit margin, so this single-digit spread is one I’m definitely willing to lay. The Wolves looked incredible last night against a good Detroit team once they got going, turning an early deficit into a 16-point beatdown.
Speaking of beatdowns, that’s what the Suns have taken in two straight games as they fell out of contention in this event. The Wolves still seem like the class of this league and are squarely in contention for the playoff. But they might need tiebreaker help, so margin of victory should matter today and motivate them to run the Suns out.
NBA Summer League (0.25 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks/Chicago Bulls Over 186.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 4:30 PM CT on ESPN2
Both of these division rivals are fully out of contention, so I expect to see the kind of game that would make a Lifetime Fitness rec league proud. The Bulls have been doing that all week, as they’ve allowed all three of their opponents to score in triple digits, which is impressively awful defense for games with 10 minute quarters. Milwaukee hasn’t been much better, and has really been unable to stop anyone with a decent offense the past two games. Both teams have scorers on their rosters and haven’t shied away from playing up-tempo, so look for them to create a pick-up game style that sends this over the high total.
NBA Summer League (0.25 Unit) Orlando Magic/Brooklyn Nets Under 180.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on NBA TV
This Magic team simply can’t score, as they’ve only managed 80.7 points per game in this event while going 3-0 under tonight’s total. Translated to a real NBA game, that’s only 96.8 points per game which would’ve ranked 28th this season. So even against a Brooklyn team that can’t seem to stop much of anything, I don’t see this weak roster of no-names suddenly erupting offensively. The Nets might have some scorers, but Orlando has been grinding out slow, ugly games and I see that continuing tonight.
NBA Summer League (0.25 Unit) Washington Wizards/Utah Jazz Over 182.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN
I don’t know what that was out of the Wizards yesterday as they only scored 58 points, but it can’t be sitting well with them and makes them a prime candidate for positive regression. Bouncing back in the scoring department is made a lot easier when facing this Jazz team that I’ve been saying plays no defense, and yesterday is obviously an outlier for a Wizards team that scored 84 and 102 in their other games. Utah is winless and probably looking to play out the string here in Vegas, so that bad defense is not likely to improve on the basis of effort, so I’ll bet on the bounce back sending this over the total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 11-13 (-1.35 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
