Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Dylan Cease Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+120; Odds via DraftKings): 5:45 PM CT on MASN
The road has been very unkind to Cease this year, as he has posted a 6.27 ERA away from home. He’s also on a streak of 6 consecutive road starts allowing 3 or more earned runs, and some of those opponents are not teams he should be giving up that kind of production to. Cease is also just struggling lately in general, getting shelled in 4 of his past 5 starts while posting a 6.51 ERA in that stretch. The Nationals have some pop in their bats to take advantage of a struggling starter, so at this price I’ll take a shot on another bad game from Cease.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Taj Bradley Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+125; Odds via DraftKings): 6:35 PM CT on MASN2
It doesn’t seem like Bradley matches up well against the Baltimore lineup. He’s had two bad starts in the past month, and both came against the Orioles as he gave up 5 earned to them on the road, and 6 at home. For his career, the Oriole lineup has a cumulative .324 average and .972 OPS against him, plus he has really struggled in Tampa’s minor league park with a 5.55 ERA this season. This Baltimore roster is too good for the team to be this bad, so getting the second half of the season started right should be made a lot easier against Bradley tonight.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110; Odds via DraftKings)
I fully expected I’d have to lay juice on this prop, so I’ll definitely take the plus-money return here. For his career, Henderson has a .412 average and 1.059 OPS against Bradley, and hits righties like him far better. Henderson has 16 total bases in 7 games against Tampa this season, so look for him to be a big part of the O’s getting to Bradley tonight.
NBA Summer League (0.5 Unit) Utah Jazz/Chicago Bulls Over 186.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on NBA TV
One thing I’ve learned in Summer League is that if the Bulls are involved, points are coming. This team has gone over this total in all four of their games, crushing the number in most instances with 201.5 points on average. At least one team has scored in triple digits in all of Chicago’s games, and now they face a Jazz squad with plenty of defensive problems of their own. Utah put up better defensive numbers the past two games against teams with bad offenses, but this matchup brings too much temptation to get out and run. It’s the final game for both teams in Vegas, neither will feel like putting in much effort on defense, and I think that creates a true shootout.
NBA Summer League (0.25 Unit) Indiana Pacers/New Orleans Pelicans Over 186.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN
Much like their division rival Chicago, this Pacers squad is essentially a lock for points in their Summer League games. They’ve gone 3-1 over this total, allowing an incredible 105.3 PPG, and also played just last night which should impact their legs on defense. Interestingly, they’re an underdog in this game to a bad Pelicans team that hasn’t been particularly competitive in any of their games. That’s a sign to me of the expectation that the Pacers will be giving up a ton of points again, but should be able to score at will against a New Orleans team allowing 95.0 PPG, so look to the over again here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 11-16 (-2.25 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
