Locks
MLB (0.25 Unit) Merrill Kelly Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+115; Odds via DraftKings): 5:40 PM CT on SportsNet PT
After a legendary run of cashing K-prop overs this spring, Kelly has only gone over this number once in 4 July starts. I think there’s a reasonable chance to go over it again today though, as he’s facing a Pittsburgh offense that has the 6th-highest strikeout rate against righties this season. Kelly has plenty of experience against this Pirates roster as well, logging 17 K’s in 56 cumulative at-bats. If he goes his usual 6 innings, which should happen against a weak offense, that works out to 5.4 total K’s based on history. But with this plus-juice price making it all the more attractive, I’m jumping in on the over today.
MLB (0.5 Unit Each) Ramon Laureano Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110) & Tyler O’Neill Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135; Odds via DraftKings): 6:05 PM CT on COLR
I think this is an easier way to fade Antonio Senzatela than his pitching props, since his starts have been wildly inconsistent. But these two Orioles don’t miss when they face Senzatela, as Laureano is 4-for-6 lifetime, and O’Neill is 6-for-8 with two doubles and a home run. Laureano has been hitting very well at home this season, while O’Neill has been very productive since the All-Star break, so both should be in good situations today. After Senzatela and his 2.09 WHIP and .380 opponent on-base average in road games is done, the Colorado bullpen will offer these Orioles more opportunity, and I think they both cash in.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 8:38 PM CT on MLB Network
Books have figured out that you shouldn’t hand out plus-juice returns for J-Rod bases in this series, but I’ll still back him at this standard price. After three home runs the past two nights in LA, Julio shouldn’t be done yet as he faces Tyler Anderson who has gone 6-for-14 against in his career with a home run and double mixed in. Rodriguez is so much better on the road it’s incredible, batting .297 compared to .213 at home with an almost 300-point rise in his OPS, so this situation sets up well for him to stay locked in.
WNBA (0.75 Unit) LA Sparks/NY Liberty Over 175 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on NBA TV
This total has been rocketing up since I gave it out on TV last night, and while I’d like to take credit for the steam, it’s sharp money seeing what I’m seeing. That would be a Liberty team on no rest facing a Sparks squad that plays fast and gives minimal effort on defense. And LA’s offense has gone off in recent games, admittedly against lesser competition, but they should still be able to carry some of that momentum into tonight against a tired Liberty team.
But if New York is on their game offensively, they should shred the league’s second-worst scoring defense that gives up a ton of production inside. The Liberty dropped 89 in the first meeting earlier this month without the services of Jonquel Jones, so with her back and able to dominate down low, they should pile up the points and send this over the total.
WNBA (0.25 Unit) Washington Mystics First Half Team Total Under 36.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on MNMT
This is a spite bet, and yes, I am allowed to bet out of spite. It’s not a great habit to get into honestly, but this situation demands it as the Mystics have flipped the script on what they used to be as a team. Last season you could count on them to easily clear a number like this at home regardless of opponent, but their early-game scoring has fallen apart this year.
So when a good defensive team like Seattle comes to DC with revenge on their minds for a home loss to the Mystics, I have to jump in. The Mystics have bitten me more than a couple times this year thinking they should score well in ripe situations, so I’m not fighting it anymore and will look to the early under here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 13-8 (+3.83 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
