Locks
NCAA Football (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)
South Alabama/North Texas Over 56.5: 11:00 AM CT on ESPNU
Don’t tease totals; don’t tease college football; don’t tease totals in college football. I’ll just stop you right there, because those rules don’t mean much anymore and you can tease whatever you want. In all three of these legs I’m using the teaser to move totals down in prospective shootouts where I’m not only erasing line movement, but getting well below the opening number. And this game sets up as an intriguing one with shootout written all over it.
North Texas cannot be stopped by Group of 5 defense, as both their run and pass games are lethal and they’re 9th nationally in PPG this season. A South Alabama team that has not stopped anything so far this season won’t stand a chance of keeping the Mean Green out of the 30’s or higher. But the Jaguars can score themselves, and I think they hang around in this game longer than expected, putting up plenty of points themselves. Considering this total opened 4 points higher than where I’m teasing it to, the value is too good to pass up for the kind of game I see coming.
USC/Illinois Over 53.5: 11:00 AM CT on FOX
The Big Noon game on FOX almost always delivers, and this should be a fun one as well. This USC offense is for real behind Lincoln Riley’s brain and Jayden Maiava’s arm. The last time they went east for a game that messes with the body clock they only combined with Purdue for 50 points, but that was a weird weather-delayed game that featured a ton of untimely turnovers. They’ll be able to move the ball and continue to score easily against an Illinois defense that was thoroughly cooked last week, and will be vulnerable in the same ways against the Trojan attack.
But the Illini will be in a foul mood after that 63-10 whooping at the hands of Indiana, and a bounce back effort should be coming offensively. Especially at home where they’ve always been much more efficient on offense, and Luke Altmeyer should be able to carve up a USC defense that is showing its usual warts in the Riley era. This is far and away the best offense USC has faced, and I think the Illini can light it up, sending this game well over the adjusted total.
Notre Dame/Arkansas Over 56.5: 11:00 AM CT on ABC
If you want to play any of these overs straight up, this would be the one as I’m not seeing any stops in this game. I don’t know what is wrong with the Notre Dame defense exactly, but their issues are both schematic and execution-based. Having to go on the road to face Taylen Green is not likely to go well for the Irish, not after their past two games have been played in the 80’s at home. The Notre Dame pass defense is now the 5th-most generous in the whole country, and they’ve only played one truly dynamic quarterback.
Green can beat them with his arm and legs, which the Razorbacks will be looking to do in statement fashion after two tough road losses where they’ve still scored in the 30’s. But Arkansas can’t stop quality offense either, which is what Notre Dame has been warming up to as CJ Carr gets more comfortable. The Irish also need style points if they happen to get on top of Arkansas here as their CFP resume hangs by a thread, so look for them to run it up if given the opportunity in perfect conditions for offense today.
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Georgia Team Total Over 27.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ABC
It’s tough to say if this is the most intriguing matchup of the weekend or if that distinction belongs to Oregon/Penn State happening at the exact same time. I guess we’ll find out, but if the first Kirby Smart versus Kalen DeBoer meeting last season was any indication, we’re in for a fun one. I think that brings points, but I’m more confident that those points will come from Georgia against what I see as a soft Alabama defense.
In watching Alabama it’s painfully obvious that the days of the Nick Saban defense are long gone, as the Tide are no longer stocked with future first-rounders, plus the effort and tackling have taken a nose dive. They’re also one of the worst teams in the country at pressuring the quarterback, so Georgia’s o-line issues will get a reprieve tonight. I think that gives Gunnar Stockton time to carve up a subpar secondary, and he will probably be forced to with Bama’s offense likely to push Georgia here. But with revenge on their minds the Bulldogs will want to make a statement, and I think that helps push them over this total.
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) UMass @ Missouri -44.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPNU
We’re mostly done with the non-conference portion of the season where cupcakes go visit power teams and get knocked around. So this opportunity is one I need to take advantage of, and I’ve said it all season that you just have to lay the big number in these spots. Especially against a UMass team that cannot stop anything, allowing 38.7 PPG so far to an FCS opponent and two FBS foes with awful offenses. Missouri is headed into a bye week so they’re less likely to fall victim to a sandwich or lookahead spot, and they’ve shown no hesitation in running it up where they can against weak opponents so far this year. With this spread sitting below the key number of 45, I’m definitely willing to lay the lumber and expect an absolute thrashing.
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Colorado Team Total Under 21 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:15 PM CT on ESPN
I’m a bit skeptical that BYU’s defense is as good as the raw numbers would suggest since their schedule has been Charmin soft. But I think they’re good enough to slow down a Colorado offense that has not been able to reach this number yet in two games against Power 5 opponents this season. I think the Cougars bring a better defense to Boulder than the Georgia Tech and Houston units that the Buffaloes have come up short against. That should be especially the case in the front-7 and tackling departments, which are key against a dual-threat QB in Kayden Salter, so at this number of 3 touchdowns I’m willing to look under on the Buffs tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 21-20 (+2.04 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
