Locks
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Team Total Over 20 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on FOX
If you only pay attention to the raw statistics, Nebraska is one of the best pass defenses in the country, ranking 2nd in yards allowed through the air. Having a couple games against Akron and Houston Christian really help to pad those numbers, so I’m not ready to say the Black Shirts are back in Lincoln quite yet. Conference play has also been unkind to the Husker defense, as they’ve allowed 30, 27, and 31 points in their 3 Big Ten games.
I think this total is a product of Nebraska’s statistical profile against the pass, and Minnesota’s over-reliance on throwing the ball so far this season. But the Gophers have been forced into a lot of game scripts where they’re playing catchup, and if they commit to running the ball like PJ Fleck loves to do, they should have success. Nebraska really struggles defending the run, ranking 113th in yards per carry allowed, so there’s a path to points for Minnesota tonight and I think they can capitalize on it.
NCAA Football (1 Unit) San Jose St/Utah St Over 61.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on CBSSN
Last week I said Utah State overs until further notice, and a 44-26 affair with Hawaii is not backing me off that stance any time soon. The Aggies really can’t stop anything, ranking 127th in scoring defense and 115th in points per play allowed. That’s a result of having a poor secondary and not getting any pressure on the quarterback, so Walker Eget and the nation’s leading receiver in Danny Scudero should feast.
San Jose State loves to throw it and they play fast, a nightmare for Utah State’s defensive problems, but those same problems apply to the Spartans. They also have a weak secondary and don’t generate pressure, which spells trouble going up against a very efficient Bronco Mendenhall offense. SJSU has been rough defensively on the road, giving up 34.3 PPG to three very suspect offenses, so I think they get torched tonight while also trading shots against a bad Aggies defense.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Bryce Miller Over 1.5 Earned Runs (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 5:08 PM CT on FS1
Miller got Seattle the surprise win in Game 1 of this series, catching Toronto in a letdown spot after they had vanquished the monster that is the Yankees in the ALDS. The Blue Jays went ice cold in two games before turning it on the past two nights, and another shot at Miller here is likely to go better for the hitters than the pitcher. Miller has always been the weakest of Seattle’s deep rotation, owning a 5.80 ERA at home this season which is shocking for such a pitcher-friendly park. So with this powerful Toronto lineup finally finding its stride, look for them to knock Miller around tonight as they have against the past two Mariner starters.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 33-17 (+12.09 Units) – Recommend: Tail
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
