Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Houston Rockets @ OKC Thunder -2 First Quarter (+100; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on NBC
I’ll play the emotional angle here with the champs. First game of the season, at home in one of the craziest environments in the league, after winning the title just 4 months ago is going to be a wild scene that should give the Thunder a ton of early adrenaline. So I’d expect OKC to start this game with a purpose and with their hair on fire, adding a key intangible element to a team that’s already dominant in this situation. The Thunder led the league in average first quarter margin last season at plus-4.2 points overall and plus-5.0 points at home, so I like this number as my first NBA play of the year.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Houston Rockets Team Total Under 109.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
Let’s see, what else did OKC quietly lead the league in last season? Oh yeah, defensive efficiency, floor percentage, effective field goal rate to name a few, along with ranking 3rd in points allowed. Not having Jalen Williams to start the season will hurt that defense a little, but I’m also skeptical of this Houston offense with Fred van Fleet lost for the season. Reed Sheppard leading the backcourt will see some growing pains, especially in this game against the champs, and the Rockets will be an excellent defensive team themselves so this should be lower-scoring in general. But I’m more comfortable targeting Houston’s team total in case OKC goes nuclear tonight.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Golden State Warriors -2.5 @ LA Lakers (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on NBC
No LeBron and no defense is going to be a difficult combination for the Lakers to overcome not only in this game, but for good portions of this season. Tonight I think it hurts them against an opponent that I see as very underrated coming into the year, as the Warriors were elite after the Jimmy Butler trade. Golden State won at a 76% clip with Butler in the lineup last year, a 63-win pace, and are now healthier than they ever were in the stretch run or the playoffs. This roster is sneaky-good, with 11 players that rate above league average which is tied with OKC for best in the league. So against a shorthanded Lakers team that doesn’t seem like it will be able to defend at a high level, I’ll back the Warriors on a short price.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 29-27 (-0.09 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
