Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Naz Reid Over 13.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North
The Wolves did not play well in their two games at Portland last season, so we’ll see if they can turn that around tonight. Those two losses did not slow Naz Reid down though, as he went off in those games and against the Blazers in every meeting. He averaged 20.3 PPG in the four contests, going over this points total each time. With a likely ever-expanding role on this team, I think this number is far too low for such a good player.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Naz Reid Over 2.5 Made Three’s (+155; Odds via DraftKings)
The other thing Naz was doing against the Blazers last season was letting it fly from deep, with 30 total 3-point attempts in the four meetings. He had multiple makes in every game, and went over this number in three of them. So against a defense that was just average in defending beyond the arc last year, I’ll take a shot on this juicy number that Naz can splash a few from deep tonight.
Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Jaden McDaniels Over 5.5 Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
Jaden also played well against Portland last year, going over this rebounding prop in three of the four meetings. When I look at this Blazers roster I see relatively limited size despite their two bigs being massive. They’re young and inexperienced though, plus they’ll be much more concerned with keeping Rudy Gobert off the glass, so I think the opportunity is there for Jaden to sneak in for plenty of rebounding work again.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Brooklyn Nets @ Charlotte Hornets -5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on YES
Pay attention to what Brooklyn general manager Sean Marks said leading into this season. He was very clear that they’re short on draft capital and desperately need next year’s first round pick to be a high one, so this team is on tank watch. I think they’re going to be a very prime candidate to bet against in-game if they ever find themselves with a second-half lead, but I digress. And when I look at this Charlotte team I see a squad with size, speed, and shooting that looked very good in summer league and preseason. So at a number that’s not asking too much of an up-and-coming team at home, I’ll lay it and expect the Brooklyn tankathon to start on opening night.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Sacramento Kings/Phoenix Suns Over 228.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on AZFamily
I’m targeting what I expect to be a low number compared to the rest of the season for Phoenix totals here. Eventually the market will catch up with what I’m seeing as a complete inability to defend, as this team lacks any premier defenders or players all that interested in the defensive end of the floor. Add in that new coach Jordan Ott wants a fast pace, lots of three’s, and plenty of offensive rebounds, which is a style he brings from Cleveland who led the league in over percentage last year. And the Kings will always be the Kings, even with some injury issues which ironically will force them to be more perimeter oriented. So I see plenty of pace in this game with a lot of good shooters and a lack of defense, which all adds up to an over on a discounted number.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 29-28 (-1.02 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
