Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Julius Randle Over 35.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North
I said it on my podcast last night, Julius props until further notice. I want you to imagine what this number would be if Anthony Edwards was out instead of questionable tonight. That’s 37.5 PRA value in this market that would have to get spread out, with a big chunk undoubtedly going to Randle.
But right now you can take advantage of this torrid run Randle has been on with the benefit of a discounted number, especially considering Ant does not look right so he’d be limited if anything. Against a Jazz team that finds defense to be sort of a nuisance, I’m expecting Big Julius to make his season record 7-2 over this total while padding that average of 39.3.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers First Half Team Total Over 62.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on MNMT
Why is a Cleveland team that only averages 58.0 first half points per game sitting with this high of a total? Well first, it’s the Wizards, who are doing their best to challenge Brooklyn for laziest first half defense in the league, allowing 63.0 so far this season. Washington has no intention of trying on defense against anyone, much less this reinforced Cavs team looking to make up for lost time.
That’s the other angle, as getting Darius Garland back last game gave them a big boost against another poor defense as they hung 70 before halftime. They’ve already gone over this total against the aforementioned Nets without Garland, so they should be able to replicate that with him and possibly De’Andre Hunter back in the fold tonight. Remember that this is an NBA Cup game where margin of victory matters, so I see them hanging big numbers starting right away.
NBA (1 Unit) Detroit Pistons First Half Team Total Over 61.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on YES
I mentioned the Nets above, so I’ll pay that off and dig in here. I’m not getting off this train – not now, not mid-season, not until April, I do not care. The Nets do not care either, about defense that is, and have now allowed all 8 of their opponents to clear their first half team total while giving up 67.4 on average. That’s astronomical, it’s comical, and it’s an angle you just have to keep playing with a team that looks fully committed to the tank. Detroit is no elite offense, but they’re playing good basketball and that should be enough to rack up a ton of first half points tonight, especially as, remember, margin of victory counts tonight.
NBA (0.5 Unit) AJ Green Over 2.5 Made Three’s (+125; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports WI
Why is there still plus juice attached to this prop? For that matter, why is this prop still lined at 2.5 instead of going up? I get that Green isn’t a volume shooter in this offense, only averaging 6.4 attempts per game, but his 52.9% shooting on those attempts gives him an argument for the best 3-point shooter in the game right now. And he’s made at least 3 from long range in every game this season, so again I ask why this number is so low and juicy? I’m jumping in.
NBA (1 Unit) Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets -3 First Quarter (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 9:00 PM CT on Prime Video
This is a wildly mispriced number considering the situation tonight. Steph Curry is set to miss this game, Jimmy Butler isn’t looking good either, so a very shorthanded Warriors team will have to contend with a Nuggets squad out for revenge. The overtime loss in the season opener has to be something Denver is looking to get the Warriors back for, and they have no problem running it up on teams early at Ball Arena. The Nuggets are second in the NBA for average first quarter margin at plus-6.1 per game, which rises to 6.8 at home, plus they led by 4 after the first quarter of that other meeting. I think this is an early runaway as Denver looks for revenge and NBA Cup margin, so 3 points feels like a gift.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Oakland @ Purdue -31.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Peacock
Oakland is coming off a 43-point beatdown at Michigan, an in-state big brother school where typically they have a little bit of mercy. They won’t get any of that from Purdue, who didn’t play very well in running out Evansville by 31 in their opener, so this number feels off. I agree with smart money that has been pushing this spread up despite it being well above metrics site projections, and think the Boilers will really put it on the Grizzlies tonight.
Purdue was matched on the glass by Evansville in that last game, which is why they didn’t run away by far more, but Oakland won’t be as fortunate with their much smaller roster. This collection of transfers for the Grizzlies is going to take some time to gel, and facing an absolute gauntlet to open the season will make them look bad, so I’ll lay the points here with Purdue.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Stonehill/DePaul Over 145.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This is all about DePaul and their style, which Chris Holtmann will be able to run even better this season in his second year at the helm. He wants pace and three-pointers, which is exactly what the Blue Demons ran in their opener against Chicago State as they dropped 92 points. I don’t see Stonehill putting up much resistance to that style of play tonight, as they should have one of the country’s weaker defenses. But if DePaul is going to allow Chicago State, one of the country’s worst overall teams, to score in the 60’s then they’ll be a candidate for overs on totals like this all season and there’s no time like the present to jump in.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 27-20 (+3.98 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
