Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Phoenix Suns Over 234 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North
I expected a really bad defensive season out of Phoenix heading into this year, and credit to them for not being atrocious on that end of the floor. They’re by no means elite, and maybe the most surprising part of their season is actually how good they’ve been offensively. The Suns are up to 6th in offensive rating, are a top-10 shooting team, and have been really good from deep.
Ditto Minnesota, who is just ahead of the Suns in offensive rating and shooting percentages, so this shapes up as more of an efficiency-based over. It’s also important to note that Jaden McDaniels looks iffy today and Jalen Green remains out for Phoenix, so both teams are missing their best possible perimeter defender. With how good the Wolves have been offensively the past couple weeks I think they drive the scoring here, and another 120-plus point output from them creates a high floor to get over this total.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Denver Nuggets/Houston Rockets First Quarter Over 60.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:30 PM CT on Prime Video
This is a matchup of two of the best first quarter teams in the league, at both ends of the floor. Both the Rockets and Nuggets are top-5 in scoring and points allowed in opening quarters, which makes them top-3 in average first quarter margin. So something has to win out in this matchup, offense or defense, and I’m picking offense. It’s primarily because of Denver’s recent struggles defensively after starting out the year looking great on that end of the court.
The past 5 games for the Nuggets have been rough to start, allowing an average of 32.0 first quarter points, so Houston as the league’s second-highest scoring team in opening quarters should take advantage. It’s another efficiency-based over in my opinion since these teams don’t play fast but they’re still the two best offenses in the league, so look for a lot of early points tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Loyola-MD @ Kentucky -19.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on SECN+
Kentucky has not fared well against top competition, losing convincingly to both Louisville and Michigan State so far this season. The last one was bad, as Sparty ran the Wildcats out of the gym, and creates a lot of questions about this team in my mind. But I do know they like to bounce back, and are good enough to put it on any cupcake that walks into Rupp Arena.
That’s the scary situation Loyola finds themselves in today, as I think Kentucky is looking to make a statement. They did it after the Louisville loss, leading a bad Eastern Illinois team by 28 at the half. UK should be able to get whatever they want inside against a very weak interior defense, and I think embarrassment is the main motivation in building a big first half lead tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Texas Tech +4.5 vs Purdue (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on CBSSN
When is the real Purdue going to show up? This team is wildly inconsistent, struggling with cupcakes and a down Memphis team last night, but also looking like world beaters against Alabama last week. I can’t seem to get the pulse of the Boilers right now, but I do think this number is a little too big for a premier showdown against an excellent team.
Texas Tech has already shown an ability to hang in tight games against tough opponents, and I think they have a couple of matchup advantages in this one. That’s primarily their production from beyond the arc, as they’re 23rd in the percentage of points they get from deep, while Purdue’s perimeter defense has been a big problem. The Boilermakers also just aren’t creating turnovers, and allowing an excellent offense like Tech’s to operate freely on a neutral court is how you let them hang around, so I’ll take the points in what should be a tight one.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Presbyterian +26.5 @ UCLA (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:30 PM CT on BTN
This game’s style does not shape up as one that’s conducive to a runaway by UCLA. This should be a grind, with both teams playing a slow, physical style of basketball that creates a much closer game than Bruins fans would want. Presbyterian is playing at the absolute slowest adjusted tempo in the whole country, while UCLA isn’t far behind them at 345th, which makes this a glacial pace game.
I just don’t see enough possessions for UCLA to build this kind of lead, especially when they’ve already been struggling to cover numbers. At just 1-4 ATS so far and missing the cover by 10.2 points on average, they just might not be built to run teams out. Presbyterian is a tough and physical team that won’t back down, so while UCLA ran Sac State out in a bounce back spot, I think we see their struggles against mid and low-major opponents return here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 19-24 (-4.07 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
