Locks
NFL (0.5 Unit) Chicago Bears @ Philadelphia Eagles -0.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on Prime Video
What the Bears have been doing is wholly unsustainable. This team keeps winning games where they’re trailing in the fourth quarter, they have an unreal turnover margin that leads the league, and they come into Week 13 with a negative point differential yet somehow lead the division. That kind of house of cards tends to come crashing down against high level competition, and that’s what they’ll have to contend with today.
Not only are the Eagles arguably the best team Chicago has faced all season, Philly comes into this game in a bad mood after blowing last week’s game against the Cowboys. That should get them up for the early part of this game, and they’ve been good at starting fast all season, ranked 3rd in first quarter scoring. Maybe the Bears find some late magic again, but I think an angry Eagles team makes a statement to start this game off.
Bonus Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.5 Unit – Dallas Goedert Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Saquon Barkley Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Rome Odunze Anytime TD (+240)
NBA (1 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers/Brooklyn Nets First Quarter Over 57.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:30 PM CT on YES
From one fast-starting Philadelphia team to another, this should also be an interesting first quarter. Well, the Sixers don’t exactly get out to the best starts when you consider their leaky defense, ranked 28th in first quarter points allowed, but it makes for exciting starts. That’s the key to this handicap, as even though both teams have their weaknesses offensively, the horrific defense that both tend to play should create a lot of early scoring.
The Nets are historically awful on defense, particularly at home where their 1.201 points per possession allowed is lapping the field of the worst defenses over the past decade. Brooklyn couldn’t care less about defense in general, so a Sixers team that loves to get into early track meets should run it up. But Philly can’t stop anyone in first quarters, giving up 32.7 points per game, and even Brooklyn should be able to score against them. These teams put up 77 first quarter points in their other meeting this season, and I think they’re back for more tonight.
NBA (1 Unit) Chicago Bulls/Charlotte Hornets First Quarter Over 60.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SE
I’m shocked to see a full-game total creeping towards 250 points while this first quarter number is so comparatively low. With these teams it should be at least a couple of points higher, as they’re both allowing over 32 first quarter points while also scoring like crazy. Charlotte is second in the league for first quarter scoring, while Chicago is only averaging 29.9 but that will undoubtedly increase against maybe the league’s worst defense. The Hornets should have no trouble scoring with LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller back, especially with Chicago pushing tempo, so I see a fast-paced opening quarter with a complete disregard for defense.
NBA (1 Unit) Luka Doncic Over 50.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:00 PM CT on Prime Video
How is this number so low? The only thing I can come up with is an expectation that this would be a blowout that keeps Doncic on the bench later on. But the fact that this is an NBA Cup game where margin matters, plus a revenge game for Luka against the Mavs, completely blows up that possibility in my opinion. If anything it makes the case for him playing even more minutes, and with a record of 9-4 over this number while averaging 53.2 on this prop, I think he shows out in a big way tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 42-31 (+9.40 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
