Napheesa Collier was sitting next to Natisha Hiedeman after their 96-71 win over the Dallas Wings Tuesday night. Collier had scored 25 points on 7 of 10 shooting, including 4 of 4 three-point attempts, in just 23 minutes before being rested for the rest of the victory. I asked Hiedeman, who also had her first career double-double, what she could say to describe Collier’s production.
“MVP,” Hiedeman said before pausing to smile. “That’s it, that’s all I got.”
Obviously, the Minnesota Lynx and Collier’s goal is a championship. It’s been their stated goal all season, prompting the #LynxRevengeTour hashtag on X. The entire team has been locked in all year. Perhaps no one more so than Collier, who’s putting together one of the most statistically dominant seasons in WNBA history.
At 32-8 with four games remaining, the Lynx have already clinched the No. 1 seed in the WNBA. Their number one offense rating (110.5), defense rating (97.4), net rating (13.1), and top-ranked true shooting percentage (57.7%) and assist-to-turnover ratio (1.82) further the argument that they are a super team. No team in WNBA history has ever finished with the No. 1 ranking in all five of those categories. It’s the sign of a team that appears on the fast track to win the championship.
Still, the Lynx improve when Collier is playing. The Lynx’s top-ranked offense increases by a full 3.4 points (113.9) just by having Collier on the court, whereas their defense loses 1.6 points (95.9) with Collier out. It combines for a ludicrous +18.0 net rating.
Minnesota’s net rating is the highest in the WNBA among players who have played over 18 games. It’s 4.0 points better than the player in second place, her teammate Courtney Williams. It’s 4.9 points better than Naz Hillman, who is the best-rated non-Lynx player at 13.1.
Collier’s per-game net rating of 11.4 is tops in the league among players who played more than 20 games and is 4.6 above Hillman, who is again the top non-Lynx player.
Collier is also leading the league in scoring with 23.5 points per game. She’s 10th overall in field goal percentage, shooting 53.4%. She’s 20th in three-point shooting at 38.5%. Collier is also shooting 90.9% from the free-throw line on just 5.5 attempts per game, meaning she is the only player shooting over 90% from the line on 4.5 or more attempts per game.
As a result, Collier is posting the fifth-best true shooting season (20+ games) at 63.8%.
Collier’s shooting has resulted in her offensive rating exploding from 105.5 last season to her current 113.9. That’s not only an improvement over the Lynx total as a team, it’s also 4.6 points better than Wilson, who ranks second in the WNBA (excluding Lynx players).
Collier also ranks third in steals and fourth in blocks per game among players who have played more than 20 games. The defensive rating plus her per-game stats rank her second in defensive win shares only behind Jordan Canada.
Simply put, Collier has transitioned from being an All-Star and Defensive Player of the Year in 2024 to a lethal offensive weapon at all three levels, warranting MVP votes while maintaining her league-best defensive abilities.
Somehow, people are overlooking Collier for the Defensive Player of the Year award. Alanna Smith, A’ja Wilson, and Canada seem to be getting most of the coverage regarding the award.
Collier’s numbers are admittedly slightly down from her last year’s DPOY performance. Still, she ranks 11th (excluding Lynx players and minimum 20 games played) in defensive rating to complement her per-game statistics.
At the very least, her statistics suggest that she is an All-Defensive team caliber player in 2025, who has elevated her offense to a historic level of efficiency.
However, there’s one major shortcoming in Collier’s MVP case. She will have only played in at most 34 games this season by year’s end. That means she has missed 10 games due to knee inflammation, a bulging disk in her back, and a sprained ankle.
As of writing, the Lynx are 25-5 in their 30 games, with an 83.33 win percentage. They are 7-3 when she has sat, for a 70.00% success rate. On the surface, it strengthens Collier’s MVP case that Minnesota transforms from a good team to a historic one when she plays. However, the WNBA has also consistently rewarded players for games played with its MVP award.
2024: Wilson played 38 of 40 games
2023: Breanna Stewart 40 of 40
2022: Wilson 36 of 40
2021: Jonqual Jones 27 of 32
2020: Wilson 22 of 22
2019: Elana Delle Donne 31 of 34
2018: Stewart 34 of 34
2017: Sylvia Fowles 34 of 34
2016: Nneka Ogwumike 33 of 34
2015: Delle Donne 31 of 34
Jones’ five missed games in 2021 are the most an MVP player has missed over the past ten seasons. Still, she played in 84.38% of the Sun games that season. If Collier finishes with 34 games played, that would still just be 77.27% of the Lynx’s total games this season. Therefore, this is a historical case to say that Collier has missed too many games this season to qualify, although there is no formal game requirement rule in the WNBA.
Detractors to Collier’s MVP case can reasonably highlight her missed games. However, the case for Collier is overwhelming. She is the best player on a historic Lynx team that improves across the board when she plays.
Collier is putting together a statistically and analytically remarkable season, and every game seems to be figuring more out. The Lynx’s primary goal is to win a championship. But Hiedeman said it best regarding Collier.
MVP, that’s it, that’s all I got.
