Fans are justifiably excited by the amount of projected cap space the Minnesota Vikings have at their disposal this offseason. Minnesota’s front office has not had this much flexibility in recent memory, and this might be the year in which the Vikings pursue some marquee free agents and make a big splash. But how much of that cap space will they spend on outside free agents? How much can they?
With all the pending free agents from the 2024 roster, we need to temper our expectations a bit because a fair amount of Minnesota’s available cap space is spoken for already.
The initial thought was that the NFL salary cap projection would hover around $275 million, and the Vikings would have $58.6 million in available cap space. However, in light of new reports, the cap is more likely to fall between $277.5 million and $281 million.
That being the case, we can presume that Minnesota’s available cap space will be closer to $62 million. Even so, very little of that is excess or “luxury” cap space. Most of this cap space is a result of roster holes on the team. The Vikings don’t simply need to add players to an existing 14-win squad; they will spend most of the cap space on replacing 2024 snaps.
Whether by re-signing players like Byron Murphy Jr. and Cam Bynum or swapping them out with free-agent starters, the Vikings will need to replace 10,733 snaps from 2024. That’s the most outgoing snaps in the entire NFL this offseason. That includes players accounting for 53.8% of defensive snaps from last season who are no longer under contract.
Think of this as money that will be used to pay bills, not taking a European vacation. Furthermore, there are few cheap outlets to supplement these snaps, given that Minnesota enters the offseason with only four draft picks.
Outgoing defensive players include starters Murphy, Bynum, Harrison Smith, Stephon Gilmore, Shaq Griffin, and Jonathan Bullard. Jerry Tillery, Patrick Jones II, and Jihad Ward also played over 450 snaps apiece. Given that’s the case, it will be difficult to make additions that are, well, additive.
There are many possible combinations of internal and external free agents with which the Vikings can fill these voids, but improving the roster will take some creativity.
Players like Bullard, Smith, Ward, Gilmore, and Griffin are older, replacement-level assets who will likely sign one-year deals this offseason. Murphy, Bynum, and Jones will be seeking multi-year contracts. For Murphy and Bynum, those could be near top-of-market deals for their respective positions.
I tallied the contract projections for all of these outgoing defenders, and it would cost roughly $62 million for the Vikings to retain all of them. Of course, there are many ways to manipulate cap hits, particularly on long-term contracts. Still, that provides a sense of just how much spending is non-negotiable. Quantity is just as relevant as quality in this case.
It will be a less cumbersome task on offense, where Aaron Jones, Dalton Risner, and Cam Robinson are the only starters on the market. Robinson and Risner were not even full-season starters. The Vikings will need a high-quality guard in the draft or free agency if they don’t want to start Ed Ingram, which they didn’t this season. While Christian Darrisaw will return sometime next season, a spot starter at left tackle will also be a priority.
Finally, running back will be an essential position in the offseason. Over 95% of the team’s combined running back snaps are hitting the market between Jones and Cam Akers. Contract projections between these four players add up to roughly $20 million.
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, Rob Byrzienski, and the rest of his staff will have their hands full if they wish to fit a marquee free agent or two into the mix. However, last offseason is a great example of how to fit sizable contracts into a tight Year 1 salary cap. Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, and Blake Cashman signed multi-year, market-value deals that sported a Year 1 cap hit well below their average annual value. For example, Jonathan Greenard’s four-year, $76 million contract ($19 million average annual value) only carried a $5.7 million cap hit last year.
Vikings fans should feel good about their situation and confident in those in charge of these moves. While the available cap space number looks exorbitant, it may not be as reflective of offseason possibilities as it seems to be. As opposed to The Vikings have so much cap space! I’d frame it as The Vikings have about enough cap space.
Minnesota’s staff has proven resourceful under Adofo-Mensah, and the work along the margins to maximize available cap space separates the good front offices from the complacent ones. As free-agent announcements pour in, keep an eye on those Year 1 cap hits to see how much emphasis Kwesi and Co. place on optimizing 2025.
