Kevin O’Connell‘s track record with quarterbacks is nearly unimpeachable. This is a guy who made Josh Dobbs look great for a game or two. But if there’s one thing that’s really his calling card, it’s rehabilitating quarterbacks who struggled on the East Coast, backed up on the West Coast, and are named “Sam.”
Given that, Sam Howell seems the obvious choice to succeed Sam Darnold as the non-J.J. McCarthy starting-caliber quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings. It’s a bit different from last year, of course, with McCarthy being Plan A this time around. Still, it’s not unreasonable to think that Minnesota could put Howell into action this season, perhaps even as the Week 1 starter. As good as McCarthy feels, we will have to see it to believe it.
It’s a big reason why the Vikings were reportedly weighing swallowing the poison pill of Aaron Rodgers this offseason. Not that it was Rodgers or bust. Even after free agency shook out, there were still reliable-ish backups on the market like Carson Wentz, Teddy Bridgewater, and Tyler Huntley.
But the Quarterback Killer chose Howell, which automatically makes the new backup interesting… though at first glance, it’s hard to figure out why.
Howell took a lot of losses in his lone season as a starter (2023), and not just the 13 the Washington Commanders earned as a team. To be honest, he was a negative play machine, leading the league in interceptions (21) and sacks (65). Per PFF, Howell faced the NFL’s second-most pressures, but he also generally held on to the ball for too long, with a time to throw of 2.84 seconds. Among 39 quarterbacks with 200-plus dropbacks this year, he made turnover-worthy plays (TWP) 4.1% of the time, tied for the fifth-most in the league.
The interesting thing about KOC is that he doesn’t seem to care much about a quarterback’s mistakes. Not if he believes he can clean them up and they have the tools to excel once that happens. It’s why he was attracted to Darnold and his deep ball. It’s why he was intrigued by toolsy dual-threat Daniel Jones, who Minnesota hoped would re-sign with them in free agency after picking him up off waivers last season. By the way, Jones was the quarterback tied with Howell in TWP% in 2023.
At least as a prospect, Howell was regarded as a better pure athlete than Darnold or Jones. Next Gen Stats put Howell’s athleticism score at 80 in the lead-up to the 2022 draft, which is in the middle of their range for “Good.” Darnold (70) and Jones (75) also made it into the “Good” range, but with less breathing room.
You saw flashes of that athleticism coming through in Washington. PFF rated 4.7% of his passes Big Time Throws, which tied him with Lamar Jackson for 15th of 39 quarterbacks in 2023. Other signal-callers in that range included Justin Herbert (5.0%), Jalen Hurts (4.8%), and Joe Burrow (4.4%). Back in college, Howell was a huge threat on the ground, carrying the ball 15.3 times per game in his junior season, at 4.5 yards a pop.
Just as the offense was set up for Darnold and is even better for McCarthy, the same would be true for Howell. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson grabbing passes. Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason in the backfield. A much-improved offensive line that should limit the pressures Howell would see.
Arm strength has been a question for Howell. While it might not be on Darnold or McCarthy’s level, there’s enough to work with. Looking at his best throws in Washington, you can see something similar to Darnold: Attacking over the middle and fitting the ball in a tight window. Whether or not he can do that consistently is going to be the question, but the fact that he can make the throws at least shows proof of concept.
The fact that the Vikings are getting Howell in the building before his 25th birthday is also intriguing. O’Connell and quarterbacks coach Josh McCown got Darnold to curb or drop his worst habits at age 27, and now they have an even more moldable lump of clay in their hands.
That speaks to KOC’s philosophy that organizations fail quarterbacks before quarterbacks fail organizations. Ironically, their belief in ensuring the team does right by the quarterback is why they didn’t draft Howell to begin with. Instead, Howell’s one season as a starter was on a Commanders team that tanked hard. Was it best for Howell’s development to get thrust into a starter’s role at 23 and immediately lead the league in pass attempts behind an offensive line that didn’t seem to protect him? Probably not.
But if called upon in Minnesota, O’Connell and Co. can put Howell in the best spot to succeed. The organization believes in his talent, and he offers an upside that retreads like Wentz simply can’t. One bad season on a dysfunctional team aside, Howell looks like a solid choice to back up McCarthy.
