Every starter for the 2024 Minnesota Vikings secondary is a free agent this coming offseason, and the position group would still be a relative need if that weren’t the case. Josh Metellus is the only defensive back under contract who played meaningful snaps this season, and he played as much nickel linebacker as he did safety.
Based on age, performance, and positional value, Byron Murphy Jr. will be the most sought-after player in Minnesota’s secondary. It would behoove the Vikings to keep him in the building, but what would it cost to retain him — and what could it cost the team to lose him?
Murphy is the quintessential Kwesi Adofo-Mensah free-agent acquisition. When the Vikings signed him in the 2023 offseason, he was coming off of his rookie deal with prime years ahead of him. However, Murphy was also recovering from a back injury that kept him out of eight games in 2022. He was an ascending player whom Adofo-Mensah was able to acquire relatively affordably with the expectation that Murphy would continue to improve.
That strategy worked well for Minnesota, but it has worked even better for Murphy himself.
Murphy will hit the market as a 27-year-old cornerback coming off his best season as a pro. He was named a Pro Bowler for the first time in his career and set career-highs in interceptions and QB rating allowed when targeted. And the health concerns that lingered when he joined the Vikings? Murphy played all 17 games this season.
This is the time for Murphy to make as much money as possible, and several teams will be interested in his services. His value will never be higher. Cornerback is one of the most highly coveted positions in the sport, and as Murphy enters his age 27 season, many will wager that he has yet to play his best football.
What Will It Take To Re-Sign Murphy?
Player quality doesn’t necessarily have a direct correlation to annual average salary. The quality of a player is but one of a multitude of factors. Position, age, and, most of all, salary cap space must be considered each offseason. As much publicity as contract dollar amounts receive, front offices use the percentage of the cap each contract costs to arrive at these figures.
The 2024 NFL salary cap was $255.4 million. In December, NFL Network reported that teams are budgeting for a 2025 salary cap of $265 to $275 million, while OverTheCap.com and Spotrac.com operate on $272.5 million and $275 million salary caps, respectively.
What would a Murphy extension look like?
To project Murphy’s upcoming contact, be it with Minnesota or elsewhere, the best way to do so is by considering recent cornerback free-agent deals and extensions.
Recent big-time cornerback extensions include the likes of Chicago’s Jaylon Johnson (7.44% of the cap at signing), Atlanta’s A.J. Terrell (7.93%), San Francisco’s Deommodore Lenoir (6.96%), and Jacksonville’s Tyson Campbell (7.49%). Based on this context, we can project that Murphy will command something in the range of 7 to 8% of the 2025 salary cap, which would be between $19.5 million and $22 million per season. A three-year, $60 million arrangement is in Lenoir territory, relative to the salary cap, while three years and $66 million would rival Terrell’s extension.
It’s impossible to predict how much the outside market will drive his price tag up, but it’s fair to assume that it will not be less than $19.5 million AAV (Average Annual Value). The Vikings project to have just over $64 million in cap space this offseason, per Spotrac, so they have plenty of room to get something like this done. Plus, the way Rob Byrzienski structures contracts will likely soften the blow this season and next.
For example, Jonathan Greenard signed a four-year, $76 million deal with the Vikings this past offseason, but his Year 1 cap hit was just $5.7 million.
The Danger of Letting Murphy Walk
Minnesota’s front office would have some scrambling to do if they were not able to retain Murphy. He’s the only cornerback from the 2024 team who’s proven and in his prime. The opportunity cost of signing Murphy is far outweighed by issues that not re-signing him would create. Even if Murphy returns, the Vikings would still need to add another two or three corners via free agency or the draft to feel good about the cornerback room.
Suppose another team outbids the Vikings, or Murphy chooses to move on. Then, they’d be left with Mekhi Blackmon coming off an ACL tear after an inconsistent rookie season, and Dwight McGlothern, an undrafted rookie who played 19 snaps in 2024. That’s it.
In this scenario, they’d have plenty of money to spend. However, continuity will be key as defensive coordinator Brian Flores becomes increasingly likely to reprise his role as Jim Moriarty in 2025.
Even before Blackmon’s injury and with Murphy in tow last offseason, the Minnesota front office cobbled together a not-underwhelming (reasonably whelming?) cornerback group. Shaq Griffin and/or Stephon Gilmore could return on one-year deals and keep the group afloat, but how much more do those two have in the tank at this point?
We should expect the Vikings to attack the cornerback issue aggressively this offseason. They have the resources to do so. High-end cornerback play is what can truly unlock all of the tricks in Flores’ bag. We saw glimpses of that from Murphy this season. Losing him would mean losing a player who can play inside and outside corner, who understands the scheme and his place within it, and who can still improve before his athleticism wanes.
The most captivating Vikings free agent not named Sam Darnold is in line for a huge contract, and he’s earned it. Adofo-Mensah also earned the play Minnesota got out of Murphy on the savvy contract he gave him in 2023. Will Kwesi double down on that positive investment this offseason or trust himself and his staff to buy low on the next Byron Murphy Jr.?
